I’ve followed his content for a long time and I agree with you- he’s consistently on point about pretty much everything. Just my opinion, but the way he’s presenting this is OTT. Saylor is “cooked” only after a very long and pronounced downturn in Bitcoin price. Could that happen? Sure. But it’s being presented as close to a done deal, whereas they have tonnes of runway and the maths simply says that if Bitcoin outperforms 12% a year CAGR vs the dollar (or arguably lower - down to long term money supply growth rate over the very long term if you take into account that STRC dividends don’t compound), MSTR will deliver positive returns in btc terms over time. That’s why it’s sensationalist imo.

Matt - I agree with the endorsements criticism but can’t help but think you’re getting a little sensationalist here. Let’s look forward as you say. Bitcoin is close to its 200 wma right now. Do you think it will return more than 15% pa against the USD over the next 5 year period? Because ultimately, that’s all MSTR need to outperform the prefs dividends and tread water, even if the STRC rate rises to that sort of level. And right now that return doesn’t even see Bitcoin back to its ATH in 5 years.

Hi Matt, long time fan and viewer of your content and I appreciate all the work you are doing on BIP-110. I appreciate you don’t like the FIAT games here. I own a chunk of MSTR, as a resident in the UK we can’t hold Bitcoin directly in tax advantaged accounts (SIPP or ISA), not even in ETFs. So MSTR is a natural option for some to gain bitcoin exposure in some circumstances with that trapped capital. I created https://mstr.rip site to show where they are on preference share plus dividends vs btc bought at outset - at the moment they are notionally $5bn down. A huge loss! This can change quickly though and the notional breakeven price is around $95k for that conceptual question. I agree with the dilution point on the recent buy, but it’s marginal and hardly a death spiral. Volatility works as a friend to their model in general, and it’s only 6 months since Bitcoin ATH. I’d be interested in your thoughts on how MSTR get into serious trouble - in my view one underrated option they have is “do nothing” - pay the dividends out of cash for 7 months, sell BTC thereafter if they absolutely have to, and even at a $60k btc price they are then having to sell 2,383btc or 0.3% of their btc per month to meet dividends. I can see why he did the recent buy though - trying to balance the confidence in the prefs with longer term looking to increase btc per share for common equity holders. Other options exist for funding also - they could issue further convertible debt at likely low interest to roll over existing convertible obligations once due, but clearly they’d rather avoid this, with it sitting senior to prefs. We are deep in a Bitcoin bear market already though and I think many overestimate MSTR’s potential impact in what is a deeply liquid spot Bitcoin market. TLDR - Bitcoin will be fine, and MSTR? Whether they outperform Bitcoin very long term likely all rests on Bitcoin returning more than the dividend yields required to pay the prefs.

Strategy have currently reached an unwelcome milestone at present - they have hit a $5bn notional loss when looking at the prefs and dividends paid, versus the bitcoin that they bought when issuing those prefs. See https://mstr.rip No wonder that the share price has been rinsed. However, this is a wholly notional number, and it’s a marathon not a sprint. Also updated the Strive tab for their massive buy this week, along with updating for cash and STRC holdings. #mstr #strc #strive

Have made a couple of updates to https://mstr.rip Firstly, have added a required Bitcoin ARR to calculate when the project forward button is used. This illustrates a facet of the 11.5% STRC rate that many do not think about when they conceptualise it as a pretty high interest rate - it doesn’t compound. Hence - based on position to date, if we look 20 years into the future the breakeven Bitcoin annual rate of return to match the prefs plus dividends from the current price is only around 7% p.a. This is an underrated component of the maths - over a 20 year term MSTR only need Bitcoin to appreciate at USD money supply growth to keep pace with current dividends and not leave the equity holders out of pocket from issuing the prefs. Secondly, Strive has demonstrated itself a very interesting player in the space with the move to daily dividends. Have added a separate Strive tab with SATA so users can monitor similar performance for those prefs and dividends. #mstr #strc #bitcoin #strive #sata

See https://mstr.rip With a break even price of $93,500 for all their prefs combined since issuing them, plus interest accrued, MSTR are notionally in the hole on the entire concept until Bitcoin recovers back past that point.