
https://manifold.markets/nathanwei/will-the-un-declare-a-famine-in-gaz Can't believe I got rug pulled by the UN. What a joke. I forecasted that the UN wouldn't declare a famine in Gaza because a real famine requires 2 deaths per 10k, which works out to ~420 deaths per day. The chances of this happening are insanely low and you've been brain rotted by your news feed if you think it is. What I failed to factor in was the possibility that the UN would just change its definition of what a famine is by removing the 2 deaths 10k requirement completely. The situation in Gaza is definitely bad, but focusing this much on what words we use to describe it (genocide, famine) is not helpful and distracts from the actual situation on the ground. Semantics are stupid, just focus on the facts.