100x on lnmarkets 😜

"How much #Bitcoin do I need to never have to work again?" 💭 We calculate conservatively - with the lower power-law band (-65 % below the fair price). Worst case. 'Realistic'. Long term. 35 years Start: next year The power-law model describes the long-term growth path of Bitcoin. BTC has been following a power function for over 16 years. We take the lower band (-65%) - i.e. the worst-case scenario. This puts us below the historical average. Current price (low) ~50k What does a simple but good life cost per year? (without luxury but with a lot of freedom 😏) 🇹🇭 Thailand → USD 15,000 🇸🇻 El Salvador → 21 000 USD 🇩🇪 Germany → 30 000 USD Before you complain: Important: These are AVERAGE COSTS and they are INDIVIDUAL We assume: Once a year, Bitcoin reaches the lower power-law band (-65%). We are the best "traders" and always sell exactly then 😜 Fees, inflation? Negligible - we are in the worst case. If you bluntly extrapolate the power law over 40 years, you end up with a BTC price of USD 57 million (at the lower band! ). 😅 That is unrealistic. Therefore: 👉 4 power-law cycles until 2040 (16 years) 👉 After that: 4% real growth p. a. Why 4%? The figure comes from the Trinity Study. It says that if you withdraw only 4% of your assets each year, you can theoretically live on them forever. Example: USD 20,000 expenditure ⇒ USD 500,000 portfolio ⇒ 4 %. Common on the financial market: 50 % shares and 50 % bonds portfolio Summarized: - 16 years Power-Law, 65% below fair price - Annual costs: 15k / 21k / 30k - From 2040 only +4 % p.a. Ready for the result? Then zap 😜 —- 🇹🇭 Thailand Fixed costs: 15 000 USD/year Until 2040 you need ~0.9 BTC. In 2040, the BTC price (lower band) is ~2 million USD. 4 % rule: 15 000 / 0.04 = 375 000 USD ≈ 0.2 BTC. 👉 0.9 BTC by 2040 + 0.2 BTC reserve = 1.1 BTC 🥳 🇸🇻 El Salvador Fixed costs: 21 000 USD/year By 2040 you will need ~1.3 BTC. In 2040, the BTC price (lower band) is ~2 million USD. 4 % rule: 21 000 / 0.04 = 525 000 USD ≈ 0.25 BTC. 👉 1.3 BTC by 2040 + 0.25 BTC = 1.55 BTC 🥳 🇩🇪 Germany Fixed costs: 30 000 USD/year By 2040 you need ~1.8 BTC. In 2040, the BTC price (lower band) is ~2 million USD. 4 % rule: 30 000 / 0.04 = 750 000 USD ≈ 0.37 BTC. 👉 1.8 BTC + 0.37 BTC = 2.17 BTC Points of criticism: 1️⃣ Will Bitcoin continue to grow exponentially? 2️⃣ Cost of living varies greatly. 3️⃣ Taxes & lifestyle play a role. But: The power law has remained surprisingly robust since 2009. Image: Power law (fair + lower price) until 2040, 4% thereafter Enough even in the power-law worst case: 🇹🇭 ~1.1 BTC 🇸🇻 ~1.55 BTC 🇩🇪 ~2.17 BTC I would like to build a dynamic calculator 😂What do you think? Am I making a mistake? Pictures: 1) Thailand 15k 2) El Salvador 21k 3) Germany 30k 4) Power Law lower Band + Price 4 % P.a from 2041-2060 5) power law

For real Bitcoiners, an mNAV from Strategy under 1 is the only logical outcome — everything else is fiat thinking.

“Trending 24h post” wow 😂

If you apply the financial market rules to Bitcoin: The 4% rule says you can withdraw 4% of your portfolio per year — meaning you need about 25× your annual expenses to be financially independent. With Bitcoin, assuming a long-term 10% real return (which is quite conservative), you could theoretically withdraw 5–6% per year. If you stick to around 4%, your portfolio would likely keep growing over time (in usd terms) Example: $40,000 annual expenses → ~€1 million needed. If you only need only $20,000 a year (e.g., living in Thailand or a low-cost country), you’d need about $500,000 — but that’s a riskier setup. The question is: how high are your annual costs? 😜

The road to control is always paved with convenience.

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