In light of these guesses… Gold, silver, other desirable commodities, and bitcoin will likely provide the best means of purchasing power preservation and accrual over the coming years.

Some guesses for 2026: 1. The Federal Reserve will lower the fed funds rate below 3.5%... 2. Which will spur economic growth and inflation... 3. Which will cause the long end of the Treasury yield curve to rise towards and above 5%... 4. Which will be unacceptable to Wall Street and the current administration... 5. Which will induce the Fed to begin yield curve control... 6. Which will cause material weakness in the US dollar... 7. Which will lead to further currency debasement... 8. Which will become fodder for large increases and volatility across risk assets.

Don't miss the significance of the secular shift that began (again) in January 2022. TL;DR The world has shifted away from US-centric Proof of Stake Financialization and towards Global Proof of Work Industrialization. Ignore this shift (and its investment/savings implications) at your own risk.

Originally posted in January 2025, I reposted it because many people who were excitedly using leverage during the bull market were starting to get liquidated during the current bear market. I hate to see it.

“Bitcoin is [still] screaming for more liquidity.” The FOMC has a long and sordid history of not acting appropriately until it is forced to do so. 1. Too little, too late. 2. Too much, too late. 3. Repeat. It soon may be forced to act.

What I'm watching... 👀 Priced in gold, the last time MSTR was as oversold (in RSI terms) on the weekly charts as it is today was during the deep valley of the flash Covid recession in March of 2020 (see vertical green lines). At that harrowing time, MSTR reached as low as $9 per share. For a long-term investor, this may be a proverbial "blood in the streets" moment for MSTR shareholders. Not investment advice... but interesting to note. Thoughts?

Despite the end of the shutdown, the Liquidity Blob remains stuck in the government’s coffers. Bitcoin is screaming for more liquidity. The 2-year Treasury yield is screaming for a lower fed funds rate. But, sadly, the market screams are falling on deaf ears. It’s painful to watch.

You may think that you own your dollars or other fiat assets, but the government actually owns your purchasing power.

Applying logic to exponential growth over a long enough timeframe will make you look insane by the vast majority of people.

Rather than peaking in 4Q 2025--as I had previously anticipated--important macro assets are actually showing signs of major cyclical bottoms at current levels. In my opinion, the anticipated bear market for certain assets and sectors has been pulled forward into 2025... and 2026 looks surprisingly bullish based on the relevant macro and technical data points that I closely follow. In light of this, I will be re-opening my small (award winning) friends and family macro-oriented, Bitcoin-friendly, multi-strategy hedge fund to appropriate HNWIs who share a long-term investment time horizon with me. Per US regulators, Limited Partnerships in the hedge fund are only available to (verifiable) Accredited Investors and Qualified Clients. If you are seriously interested in joining me in the hedge fund--and you meet the above-mentioned criteria--feel free to send me a DM. Cheers.

An epic take 😂