🛢️WTI crude just broke out of a two year descending channel with the largest weekly gain in the history of the futures contract. The breakout is real. But I think it's important to be honest about what's driving it. This move is geopolitical. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Iraq and Kuwait are cutting production. 20% of global seaborne oil is offline. Those are facts. 💣 But geopolitically driven moves are conditional by nature. A ceasefire, a diplomatic resolution, a reopening of the strait: any of these could reverse this breakout as fast as it occurred. The 1990 Kuwait invasion is instructive. Crude spiked 140% in three months and gave it all back within six. If you own energy, this is working for you. If you're looking to add exposure here, the risk/reward demands selectivity. The technical breakout says higher. The geopolitical catalyst says it could evaporate overnight. I'm bullish on the chart. I'm cautious on the catalyst. There's a difference. #oil #iran #investing
