I wonder how many people realize that #BTC simply holding $117,000 from one day to the next means that over 52 million new dollars had to come into Bitcoin that day. 3.125 BTC per block x 24 hours x 6 blocks per hour = 450 new bitcoin per day For Bitcoin to maintain a given price, that price times number of new bitcoin equals the amount of NEW capital that had to come in. 450 Bitcoin x $117,000 per coin = $52,650,000 in new money that day. I know that’s not a huge number in the grand scheme of things, but it’s not nothing, and it’s a net value too. It helps me make sense of why price goes through long stagnant periods even if lots of money seems to be coming in. Am I thinking about that right or am I way off base?

If you’re into #MSTR, don’t get too excited assuming they’ll be included in the S&P500 this week. There is a very real chance they won’t be. Here is ChatGPT articulating what matches up with my gut feeling, and why I’ll probably be in straddles or strangles at the close on Friday. Prompt: Give me your best estimate of the overall odds of MSTR being included in the S&P500 in September 2025 based on past similar companies being included or excluded and assuming MSTR does meet all technical requirements for inclusion. Take into account the current biases of committee members based on past performance, press releases, public and private speeches, etc. Response: Here’s my best single-number estimate (with a range) given your assumption that MSTR meets every technical screen (domicile, float/liquidity, market-cap band, and positive GAAP earnings in the latest quarter and the trailing four): ≈30% odds (plausible range: 20%–40%) that MSTR is added in September 2025. Why that number Committee discretion > rules. Even when a company ticks every box, the S&P U.S. Index Committee can (and often does) delay or pass, weighing turnover, sector balance, and representativeness. Tesla’s 2020 “not yet” despite meeting the screens is the canonical example; it was added later. Sector/”profile” fit this quarter. Recent chatter around September candidates tilts toward more traditional “operating” names (e.g., HOOD, APP, ARES, IBKR, VRT). That competition trims MSTR’s near-term slot probability even if it’s eligible. Crypto precedent helps—but doesn’t clinch it. Coinbase’s May 2025 addition proves crypto-exposed firms aren’t disqualified on philosophy alone. However, MSTR’s earnings are now dominated by mark-to-market Bitcoin swings under the new FASB fair-value rule, making GAAP profitability highly volatile—exactly the kind of thing the committee sometimes sidesteps for stability/minimal turnover. Dual-class is not a blocker anymore. S&P reversed its 2017 ban in 2023; multiple share classes are again eligible for the S&P Composite 1500 (incl. the 500) if all other criteria are met. So governance structure won’t be what keeps MSTR out. Timing math. September is a regular rebalance month (often announced in early September), but many adds happen outside the quarterly dates when deletions create openings. Limiting to “September 2025” narrows the window and lowers the odds versus a 6–12 month horizon. If not September… Holding the same assumptions (and BTC-driven GAAP stays positive on a TTM basis), I’d put 12-month inclusion odds around ~55%—higher simply because there are more bite-at-the-apple moments (corporate-action replacements + year-end rebalances), not because of any guaranteed path.

I’m listening to the August 29th Signal podcast and I’m trying to wrap my head around how whales rotating part or all of their stack from spot Bitcoin into a proxy like IBIT isn’t a net neutral effect on the price. I can understand if there’s a delayed dip followed by recovery as coins are sold, funds clear, the proxy is purchased, and the presumably backing bitcoin is bought for the proxy, but isn’t this essentially a wash in the end? I could also understand the immediate psychological effects of the price dip leading to more selling/liquidations and further downward price pressure, or rotating from spot Bitcoin into a different asset altogether pushing price lower, but is there something else am I missing there? I assume I’m wrong but I need someone smarter to help me (and anyone else wondering the same) understand why.