Alright people much smarter than me, tear it apart. Here is the last part of my Sunday afternoon ChatGPT conversation. Prompt: If such a quantum computer existed (capable of breaking bitcoin’s cryptography), what would be the most financially logical use case incentives? For example, if the computer were used to break bitcoin, bitcoin would likely lose most or all of its value causing the compute power to be effectively wasted. Wouldn’t incentives drive the use of quantum compute toward other uses? If so, what? If not, why? Response: That’s a very insightful and realistic question — you’re absolutely right to frame this in economic-incentive terms, not just technical ones. Here’s a concise but rigorous breakdown of the logic: ⸻ 1. Using a quantum computer to steal Bitcoin is economically irrational • Bitcoin theft destroys its own value. A visible quantum-based theft would shatter trust in Bitcoin’s security, likely collapsing its price to near zero — instantly devaluing the stolen coins. • Traceability and public ledgers: Bitcoin is pseudonymous, not anonymous. Any large-scale theft would be visible, traceable, and almost certainly frozen out of exchanges. • Reputation and risk: Anyone with such a unique quantum computer would almost certainly be a state or large institution — not some rogue actor able to launder billions undetected. 👉 Result: using it to steal Bitcoin is financially self-defeating. ⸻ 2. Rational economic use: extract value without collapsing markets If such a quantum computer existed, it would be the rarest and most valuable machine on Earth. Rational incentives would push toward quiet exploitation of high-value asymmetric information, not obvious destruction. For example: a. Government or intelligence use: • Break encrypted communications, espionage, cyberwarfare. • Decrypt diplomatic, military, or corporate secrets — extremely high value, and can be kept secret. b. Financial market edge: • Quietly access encrypted financial data or communications for strategic trading or policy advantage. • Potential to read competitors’ algorithms, internal memos, or market-moving data before release — huge private returns, no market crash. c. Cryptanalytic services or deterrence: • Use to demonstrate capability (nuclear-style deterrence), not deploy destructively. • Sell or lease access covertly to select clients/governments. d. Scientific/computational advantage: • Use it for quantum chemistry, optimization, AI model training with quantum acceleration — massive industrial, pharmaceutical, and energy implications. ⸻ 3. Why not just “print money”? • Once public-key crypto falls, financial systems rapidly upgrade — you get a narrow, short-lived window to exploit. • Exploiting too obviously triggers global system reconfiguration, diminishing future returns. • The rational move is strategic restraint: use the power quietly to accumulate sustainable, compounding informational or scientific advantage. ⸻ 4. Economic conclusion If a quantum computer powerful enough to break Bitcoin existed: • Rational actors wouldn’t use it for theft. • They’d use it covertly to gain long-term informational, political, or scientific advantage. • The true economic incentive would be asymmetric intelligence and influence, not direct, flashy profit — think “Manhattan Project for information.” ⸻ In short: The first entity to build a quantum computer powerful enough to break Bitcoin wouldn’t use it to steal Bitcoin — they’d use it to quietly control the information economy before the world even realizes what’s happening.
