analysis of the Iran-US conflict points to a key fact; this will not be the last of Iran's strategic win. supply chokepoint as the Straits of Hormuz theatre's primary means of geopolitical attrition, has since demonstrated that crude oil prices continues to play a deterministic role in America's domestic politics means that Iran, not the United States, will have ability to influence both the price of energy AND the sentiment of the US voter demographic. President Trump's tactical moves are, already well interpreted by many, at best reactionary responses to reduce or mitigate the impact of votes come later this year during the US mid-term elections. while the CSIS study focus on the well established materials, engineering and capital proxy procurement base out of the UAE, it should be expanded beyond this rather limited foci. the network of companies, proxies and extended individuals/organizations such as the Mostazafan, that have since taken on the role from the very influential and powerful Mohsen Rafiqdoost, one of the key founding members of the IRGC and former driver and bodyguard of the founder of the Iraninan Republic, Ruhollah Khomeini. this network has since expanded to specific blockchains, seemingly unrelated individuals operating outside of the Middle East, cannot be easily tracked, if at all. the State of Israel, will continue to be the justification of the current, and very likely, future iterations of the Iranian regime and the IRGC, to conduct acts of what it deems reciprocity. This reinforces the importance of Israel's much tighter integration with the US DoD, via the recent US House’s 2027 draft defense bill, NDAA includes Section 224, the “United States-Israel Defense Technology Cooperation Initiative", which goes far beyond military aid. the prime outcome therefore, points to more intense and perhaps short bursts of tactical attrition long into the future, and will expand in the geographical radius of future oil shocks to places such as Yemen, Somalia etc. this is also why, oil and gas storage, held by IEA members, will see dramatic recalibration in terms of reserves and stockpile management. if emergency stockpiles are adjusted to beyond 2 billion BBLS, this will translate into very long term implications for the global energy trade, the composition of US dollar reserves held by central banks, and the economic construct of how decarbonization will be articulated within the EU, Latin America, and Africa. > https://www.csis.org/programs/latest-analysis-war-iran
