China Morning Missive Speculative Folly Yet another top Chinese general is purged, and, once again, the speculation is rampant. Claims are made and conclusions drawn and the attention quickly moves to what this will mean for the reign of Xi Jinping. There is talk of a coup. There is talk of a removal from office by “the Elders”. It is all a fugazi and, more importantly, a distraction from events underway that do matter, that do have significance. In terms of the Xi rumors, this would make for the seventh or eighth episode (I’ve lost count honestly) of how events in Beijing are expected to bring down this “Emperor for Life”. And that doesn’t count all the rumors of ill health. Then again, all the speculation is to be expected in a world driven by social media engagement farming. There may be, possibly, importance connected to this latest development, but it has taken away from actual events from the past week that do have real-world implications. Firstly, this past week provided an initial view into the strategic aims of China’s latest Five-Year plan. State Grid, China’s largest power transmitter and grid operator, announced a 40% increase in CAPX out to 2030. A commitment of Rmb4trillion (US$570billion). There’s been ample commentary of late of the massive gap between China’s ability to produce energy versus that of the United States. This announced investment demonstrates that energy, broadly speaking, will remain a top priority over the next five years and, with it, a further widening in the gap. Then there was the announcement that the Shanghai Futures Exchange will begin trading LNG contracts denominated in RMB as soon as February. Beijing has spent the past decade making inroads into the adoption of RMB for pricing across the entire commodity complex. This move would indicate there now being greater willingness among counterparties to accept RMB payment terms. The Qataris would be the most obvious group given the construct of the current bilateral trade relationship. What will need to monitor is if Australian suppliers, delivering one-third of China’s LNG imports, will accept RMB as well. The reason why Australia needs attention goes to another development from this past week. BHP announced that it would be accepting price concessions on iron ore exports to China after a lengthy period of stalled negotiations. And this deal comes just a few months after BHP agreed to accept 30% of iron ore purchases contracted in RMB. Finally, there are the reports of the growing gold reserves held by Poland. How this connects with China goes to how it is the bilateral trade relationship is managed. Poland settles just over a third of its annual trade with China in RMB. It does run a trade deficit with China but taking into account the role played by the Shanghai International Gold Exchange in final settlement, it is reasonable to conclude that a portion of the rising gold reserves by Poland is attributed to RMB surpluses being net final-settled with gold. These are the development that matter and is also a demonstration, once again, of China operating on a very low time preference. The most impactful events occur on the margins and are, almost always, overlooked and absent from geoeconomic analysis. It has always been a game of inches and will remain a game of inches. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/china-top-general-ousted-xi-220640693.html

My issue remains though. Have long form content to share here but Nostr Reads still doesn’t have the adoption. I’m about to really test that theory though over the next two weeks.

Finally bailed on LinkedIn six months ago. Algo there had also become very suppressive. Glad I’m gone.

Oh, I avoid that place like the plague. Nostr has been home for coming up on two years. Or is it three??

Maybe. But I found too many people who are real people operating at a border line base layer.

I pray to God you are right.

Fuck me. Just jumped on Twitter for the first time in two year. Had a look around….. If that is a representation of America today, well, I’m calling it. GAME OVER. Nothing but vitriol. Zero empathy. Zero introspection.

China Morning Missive Moving Parts Please accept my apologies for having not sent through any morning updates from Shanghai over the past week. It has been a hectic period for all of us. In addition, I have been finalizing a rather in-depth essay on the path to rivalry between China and the United States. A tome really. Will see about where best to upload it on Nostr. For now, however, please find below the initial section of that essay’s introduction. It ties nicely into recent comment from Canadian PM Carney Introduction The veil has fallen. America has discarded the charade that its primacy was held to account by the very international rules-based order it built 80 years ago. This realpolitik dichotomy has been known throughout most of the world and for quite some time. What actually transpired over the past several weeks is a realization – a loss of naïveté – among the American populace and the citizenry of post-1945 allied nations that America would act as it saw fit in the pursuit of self-interest and will do so, whenever necessary, fully unencumbered. America has deployed uber-primacy and the raw projection of power from the very moment the Cold War ended and the unipolar world commenced. These actions are just no longer concealed by diplomatic subterfuge. From the Iraq War to the Global Financial Crisis policy responses and myriad other instances, the very “international rules” forced upon others has always been deemed inconvenient by Washington and, thusly, ignored when those “rules” conflicted with self-interest. Throughout the unipolar moment, the non-American allied world was acutely aware of American intentions. Those nation-states accepted, with reticence, the power bestowed upon this hegemon. China, and Russia for that matter, also accepted that the world was to be dominated by a single superpower. Both nations, however, knew their world histories and in 1997 began planning for that inevitable day when America’s reach would finally exceed its grasp. That day has long since arrived and there is now a broad agreement that a realignment in the world order is underway. The only debate present is found in the international relations community and its zealous quest for labels: Multipolarity, G2, the Global South and even, more recently, the Core Five. Amongst them are the ubiquitous and overly simplistic comparisons made to the Cold War. For those seeking historical comparisons, there’s arguably far more compelling evidence to measure current events against the backdrop of those occurring in and around 1904. No matter one’s outlook or perspective, the only real conclusion which can be drawn is that the present moment is a unique point of departure from the previous century. History has not ended. And yet, there remains an obsession over labels and constructs, an exercise – importantly to be stressed – which is Western led and Western promoted. China eschews such framing. Where others find comfort in taxonomy and historical comparisons, Beijing views such exercises, while providing some value, as unnecessarily restrictive and, ultimately, misguided. And then there’s the fact that China is the “Middle Kingdom”. An important cultural point of reference as it is a defining element for understanding Beijing’s view of the world and how it goes about engaging with all sovereign actors. (More to follow) https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/carney-davos-speech-9.7052725

Socrates would agree …..

Oh. This person. Lei on China. First to your question. I have no idea what the actual population figure is. There are just a ton of Chinese people that’s all I know. I would question how she is taking into account the sheer number of Chinese from the Mainland who have emigrated over the past 70 years. It’s a lot and they are all over the world. In every single country. But again, I have no idea. What I do know is this. She has come out over the past couple of years with YT videos making some wild claims all of which have been completely wrong. She’s all about the algo. All about engagement farming. If it works for her, then awesome.