I hear ya. Just keep in mind that Robert Rubin is still out there to this very day preaching his same sermon. “Wall Street knows better”. And he is well into his 80s

I’m more obsessed with checking the hashrate than the price. For me it’s the only data point that matters.

It’s Friday and I thought the video below would provide some much needed levity. Have a great weekend people!!

China Evening Missive So the Chinese 4th Plenum has officially concluded and with it comes a somewhat lengthy and still quite vague summary of the next five year plan. First impression is that there’ll be a doubling down on technology. There are a host of other high level points made. For now though, expect everyone to be rushing out with hot takes. Treat any definitive conclusions made with a high degree of suspicion. Need to let it all marinate at least for a day. Will return at some point with my take on what it all might mean. https://amp.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3330062/china-pledges-notable-progress-fourth-plenum-concludes-5-year-road-map

China Morning Missive Interesting to see that the latest iteration of the Deepseek AI model isn’t getting much attention in the business media. Thankfully there’s always Tom’s Hardware. There is trend becoming increasingly apparent. Given the ongoing restrictions placed on China by the American government, AI developers are having to create unique solutions to solve the issue of compute. Here we have just one example taken from the linked article. “Chinese developers of Deepseek AI have released a new model that leverages its multi-modal capabilities to improve the efficiency of its handling of complex documents and large blocks of text, by converting them into images first. Vision encoders were able to take large quantities of text and convert them into images, which, when accessed later, required between seven and 20 times fewer tokens, while maintaining an impressive level of accuracy.” Again, this is just one example and provides the sort of roadmap being used by all AI developers in China. Keep in mind as well that the Chinese models are all open sourced and, in nearly all cases, open weight as well. Iteration among the larger players, such as QWEN and Kimi K2, explains why these groups have been so aggressively quick with the release of enhanced models. The same, too, holds for the application of these of models. In the Deepseek example, Chinese companies ranging from automotive to logistics are finding ways to use the AI models to enhance overall performance in production and/or servicing. The primary objective here is to build for scale and in doing so provide actual usability and with deep cost effectiveness. A stark difference when compared to all the financial shenanigans taking place among the various American AI groups. https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/new-deepseek-model-drastically-reduces-resource-usage-by-converting-text-and-documents-into-images-vision-text-compression-uses-up-to-20-times-fewer-tokens

Actually, there was no vaccine mandate here and I’ll be honest that surprised me. That’s not to say there weren’t lines of people willing to get the vax just that it was a Chinese vax and not an mRNA.

China Morning Missive When you miss the actual point, entirely. Not sure if you’ve heard the story of an individual among the Chinese trade team “going rouge” recently. Or as Sec Bessent said “had acted unhinged”. Well, it was reported that this individual was removed from his post. Have included a CNBC article for reference below. Technically that would be correct, but as I noted above, that also misses the actual point. Have personally seen this tactic a million times before. When negotiating with a Chinese party you can expect one individual to “go rouge” and that will typically take place at a point of heightened tension. The aim is to put the other side further off balance. We, in the west, would call this person the “bad cop”. This is purposefully done, and I would also add that the actions and approach taken will be what is consider “unhinged” by western standards. But here’s the point that I find to be hysterical. This individual was, yes, formally and technically removed from his post as Ambassador to the WTO and a member of the trade team. He was, also, promoted, returning to Beijing for a higher up roll in the Ministry of Commerce. He did his job. Did it well and effectively to advance China’s interests. The entire circus, and this event in particular, just shows how poorly Sec Bessent and his team understand the opposing side. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/10/20/china-removes-top-trade-negotiator-from-former-wto-post.html

Ok, for those who have seen this content below, and with the greatest respect to , this information is patently false. Moreover, this trope - all of what Peterson claims - has been promlagated by more podcast hosts and guest than I can recall. I jaywalk all the time and there’s been no consequence and there’s certainly been no deduction of any cash from my bank account. And having your face plastered in public? Are you serious. First off, there aren’t that number of screens and whatever screens are out there are a blaze with commercials and marketing. Here is what I can share. If you do happen to share “sensitive” content on any of the various social media platforms you will receive a message to refrain from any such future commentary. If you continue, then your social media account will be suspended. I believe that this has happened more than a few times in the US and, well, just look at the UK at the moment. When it comes to third party commentary on China, my recommendation is to always question whether than commentator has been to China at any point in the recent past. I’ve found that most people haven’t been to China in at least six years, pre-Covid times. What we have is an ecosystem where errant tropes, that so beautifully align with hardened biases, are picked up and then repeated over and over again to the point that, well, it is all taken as truth. My suggestion to everyone is to tread skeptically when consuming content on China by individuals who, themselves, are only passing on second hand information. Do the same too, have a raised eyebrow with people like myself. Just don’t take what you see as gospel. The only way to know with the utmost confidence is to get on a plane and come to China to see for yourself. Make up your own mind.

China Morning Missive So, it would appear as though I’m kicking off my work week with yet another “Xi Jinping coup” rumor. It never seems to end. Just last week the rumor mill was convinced that the man had suffered a stroke. The latest culling or a purge, or whatever it might be called, among higher ups in the Chinese military over the weekend has certainly fanned the flames. There’s also the timing of all this chatter to consider. There’s a rather big conclave happening at the end of this week, the so-called 4th Plenum and then, of course, there’s the APEC meeting the following week and an expected bilateral meeting with President Trump. A recipe with a handful of simple ingredients allowing for the imagination to run wild. Let me start here by making the following important statement. No one knows shit about fuck and that includes me. With that point out of the way, the question of Xi being removed by others in the Party has been asked of me for years. What follows is how I answer that question. Is it possible that Xi could be removed from power? Absolutely. No question and even more probable than some might think. In fact, there’s even a rationale for his removal, but it has almost nothing to do with power or politics. It’s all about money. A sharp fissure within the party occurred back in 2017 when Xi Jinping threw down the gauntlet stating that the Chinese economy would “shift from growth at all costs to quality growth.” This decision would reverberate far and wide threatening the “alternative sources of income” for millions of Party members, aka soft corruption. That decision resulted in genuine tension throughout the Party remaining very much present even after reaching a crescendo in 2022. Many won’t recall, but at that time there were also widespread rumors of a coup attempt. So, yes, it is certainly well within the realm of possibility that a change in Party leadership could occur. Do I, personally, believe that such an outcome will take place? The short answer is no. No matter what conflict might exist within the Party, nor how intense that conflict might be, there are two critical variables that need to be taken into account. First, the Communist Party of China abhors instability. There’s been no positive outcome over 5,000 years when there’s strife. Above all else, consistency must prevail. Removing Xi from power, even if meaningfully done with a degree of subterfuge, will knowingly run the risk of system instability. Second, real or imagined internal difference aside, the entire Party is operating under the premise of “changes unseen in 100 years.” The Party sees clearly that the post-WWII world order is breaking and in China’s favor. Beijing can gain real credibility just by standing still, doing nothing. Ousting Xi would be the opposite of that tactic and would be viewed as highly counterproductive. Who knows in the end though. For now, I’ll just leave this here and let you all arrive at your own conclusions. Do, however, hit me up with any questions or feel free (its encouraged actually) to press me on any of the points raised above.

Epiphany of the day. Those who can, can. Those who can’t, teach. Those who can’t teach, become Senior Fellows at some partisan Think Tank. I mean, seriously, what is with the explosion in the number of “Senior Fellows”? To sell one’s integrity for a paycheck is just beyond what my mind can comprehend. “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it” - Upton Sinclair

Happy Friday from Shanghai

Much appreciated.