Joe Kent letter. Interesting read. #war

This model for the economic impact of Hormuz strait being closed is also interesting.

Segundo intento... #hispano #followlist https://following.space/d/3ec54c78-d5de-4877-87fd-cbb7edf47a78?p=e3eb2eaca428217263ae49b258c0540aa4f6fb81dec08f69c664c1f0c4a94801

Simple business model.

You might. You use a lot of hashtags 😆 That's the Nostr superpower.

Follow lists are great. Much better to let people choose from those at onboarding than the "keep recommended follows" option.

Mining the straits is not a binary option. #Iran could just partially mine. If they mine the southern section, they could leave a channel going by Bandar Abbas, enabling them to fully control traffic. They could turn it almost into a toll booth.

I agree. But I can see how some people might misinterpret. Again, he deserves my respect.

More KCs heading to the Gulf.

He did write "Mastering Ethereum"... But yeah, he was a great Bitcoin educator. One of the best. Respect is due.

Open Source Blueprints for Civilization. Build Yourself. #FOSS will save the world. https://www.opensourceecology.org/

"The first casualty of war is the truth" Aeschylus (525-456 BC)

If we combine this with current Polymarket odds of a ceasefire... 51% odds of a ceasefire by May 31st. That means that we can expect 8 weeks of war with almost 60% probability. I don't think that it is priced in.

"Seize territory around the waterway with ground troop" WSJ floating the idea of a "limited" ground invasion. 🤦

The problem with AI is that the result always looks good, until you zoom in. Always some typos, always loses precision. Still... it is fast. #history #timeline

Today: Oil > $100. TLV closed. Hormuz: minimal traffic Implications: Iran still has long range missiles to hit Israel. Iran still has the means to decide who passes the strait of Hormuz. Conclusion: The war can continue for weeks or months. Probability of escalation by US is high.

The fog of war is thick! Many lies floating around. it's hard to tell how the war is going and what scenario we are heading towards. However there are a few things that are hard to fake persistently: 1. Oil price 2. Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz 3. Air traffic around TLV It's hard to fake commercial flight traffic to a major international airport. It's hard to fake a supertanker on satellite.

Shipping around Hormuz is another good indicator obviously. https://www.shipxplorer.com/