The BIP-444 soft fork proposal is designed as a temporary one-year measure to restrict arbitrary data in Bitcoin transactions, aiming to address legal and spam concerns related to on-chain data. This means the soft fork chain created by BIP-444 could be the "lightest" (i.e., the active or preferred chain adopting these rules) for about one year, as the proposal itself explicitly states a one-year duration to give the community time to evaluate and develop longer-term solutions. However, the actual duration in practice could vary significantly depending on miner and node adoption, community consensus, and potential support or opposition from economic actors. Since adoption of Bitcoin Core v30 (which relates to these changes) is still relatively low, the real network effect may take longer to fully manifest or might face divisions leading to fork scenarios. In summary: Intended minimum duration: approximately one year according to BIP-444’s stated temporary soft fork period. Actual effective duration: depends on consensus dynamics, miner and node support, and network upgrades; potentially shorter or longer if disagreements cause chain splits or delayed adoption. No fixed block number or time beyond that one-year proposal is currently defined, so careful monitoring of miner signaling and node adoption rates will be crucial to estimate how long the BIP-444 chain remains the main (lightest) chain

Analysis of the Game Theory Behind the BIP-444 Proposal https://njump.me/naddr1qq245anx2skn2sn8x9u8q3zgxgckydz3gexkuqghwaehxw309aex2mrp0yh8qunfd4skctnwv46z7q3quf3w6w3z4kxy0zc80m6a03tt9s7855c9r8kkjmkju47xtc28l09sxpqqqp65wwr9s8q

You're partly correct – the limit of 750 orphan blocks has existed in Bitcoin Core since 2014, and it's indeed designed to prevent excessive storage usage. However, this limit does not determine the length of a chain battle (fork). Here's what happens during a fork (chain battle), and how it differs from orphan blocks: During a fork, two or more competing chains coexist. These chains are not orphan blocks; they have known parents and are fully valid. The network compares both chains' total work (accumulated difficulty). Nodes switch their "active chain" to the one with more work. The other chain becomes "stale" but is still known and valid. The 750-block limit does not apply to stale blocks during a fork. It's only for blocks with unknown parents (orphans). . There's no predetermined limit to how long a fork can last; it depends on mining power and block finding rates. In other words, during a fork, nodes don't discard blocks after 750 blocks. Instead, they remain committed to the chain with the most work, and the 750-block limit is irrelevant in this context.

Das wird sich zeigen. Es könnte sein, dass du recht hast mit den minern. Die Frage ist, ob ein Börsen notiertes Unternehmen, das Risiko geht falsch zu liegen, wenn es auf der alten chain bleibt und die neue sich dann durchsetzt. Dann wären sie nämlich bankrott. Gehen sie auf die neue, können sie kaum verlieren. Geht nur ein größerer miner auf die neue, bekommen alle Torschlusspanik. Die Frage für solche Börsen gelisteten Miner ist, was deren Anwälte in dieser Situation empfehlen. Ich glaube, sie empfehlen, den sichersten Weg und keine Wetten. Oder sie Minen gar nicht selbst, sondern verkaufen ihre Hashpower. Dann können sie machen was sie wollen, falls sie sich nicht in bitcoin entlohnen lassen, sondern in USD.

Analysis of the Game Theory Behind the BIP-444 Proposal https://njump.me/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzpcnza5az9tvvg79swlh46lzkktpu0ffs2x0dd9hd9etuvhs5077tqywhwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnzd96xxmmfdejhytnnda3kjctv9uq3samnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3wwpshyet5duh8gmmhdchsq926wen9gtf4gfnnz7rsg3yryvtzx3g5vntwcxgdgr

Analysis of the Game Theory Behind the BIP-444 Proposal https://njump.me/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzpcnza5az9tvvg79swlh46lzkktpu0ffs2x0dd9hd9etuvhs5077tqywhwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnzd96xxmmfdejhytnnda3kjctv9uq3samnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3wwpshyet5duh8gmmhdchsq926wen9gtf4gfnnz7rsg3yryvtzx3g5vntwcxgdgr

Analysis of the Game Theory Behind the BIP-444 Proposal https://njump.me/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzpcnza5az9tvvg79swlh46lzkktpu0ffs2x0dd9hd9etuvhs5077tqywhwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnzd96xxmmfdejhytnnda3kjctv9uq3samnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3wwpshyet5duh8gmmhdchsq926wen9gtf4gfnnz7rsg3yryvtzx3g5vntwcxgdgr

Analysis of the Game Theory Behind the BIP-444 Proposal https://njump.me/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzpcnza5az9tvvg79swlh46lzkktpu0ffs2x0dd9hd9etuvhs5077tqywhwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnzd96xxmmfdejhytnnda3kjctv9uq3samnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3wwpshyet5duh8gmmhdchsq926wen9gtf4gfnnz7rsg3yryvtzx3g5vntwcxgdgr

Analysis of the Game Theory Behind the BIP-444 Proposal https://njump.me/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzpcnza5az9tvvg79swlh46lzkktpu0ffs2x0dd9hd9etuvhs5077tqywhwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnzd96xxmmfdejhytnnda3kjctv9uq3samnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3wwpshyet5duh8gmmhdchsq926wen9gtf4gfnnz7rsg3yryvtzx3g5vntwcxgdgr

Analysis of the Game Theory Behind the BIP-444 Proposal https://njump.me/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzpcnza5az9tvvg79swlh46lzkktpu0ffs2x0dd9hd9etuvhs5077tqywhwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnzd96xxmmfdejhytnnda3kjctv9uq3samnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3wwpshyet5duh8gmmhdchsq926wen9gtf4gfnnz7rsg3yryvtzx3g5vntwcxgdgr