spacestr

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Phil
Member since: 2023-03-01
Phil
Phil 28d

Love Luke Gromen, but I feel like he gets too much credit for the sale last year at $90k. Once you pay taxes, you have to have a really steep decline and time the buyback well to make such a trade worth it. He’s been pretty open his buying and selling history, so we can use an informed guess as an example. Let’s say he was sitting on 20 Bitcoin with a $30k cost basis. Selling at $90k locks in a $60k gain per coin, and let’s assume it’s all LTCG. Federal rate is 20% and Ohio is something like 3%. So he had to pay 23% of that gain on the 2026 tax return. If he’s a higher income tax payer (likely a good bet), add another 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax—for conservatism, I’ll ignore that. I’m sure it felt good getting $1.8M gross last year, but after taxes it’s now $1.52M. Still cool, but bitcoin only dropped to $58k. If he bought back in then, he’d have 26 Bitcoin if rolling the full dollar amount or $1.16M if just replacing the 20. Problem is, he didn’t buy back in and has been on the sidelines. If this move up is durable, he’s back in at $72k. That’s 21 bitcoin for the $1.52M, basically right where he started. Round-tripped back to roughly his starting Bitcoin count, but paid ~$300k in taxes and gave up months of potential upside to get there. Risk adjusted, that’s a tough trade to defend…

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