Standard fee for swaps is usually around 0.25% which is already significant.

Yes, testing ideas that have zero chance of being implemented in Bitcoin.

5) You understand why so many global policies are anti-human when you realize their masters are non-human beings

“The bill treats #privacy like a loophole, not a right, reshaping the internet into a government ID checkpoint. […] The bill’s machinery reads like a privacy demolition project written by people who still call tech support to reset passwords. […] The wording is broad enough to rope in half the internet, yet somehow manages to exclude “bona fide news” (as to be determined by the state) and cloud platforms that don’t create the content themselves. […] Officials in other places are already cheering this idea. Michigan introduced a proposal requiring internet providers to detect and block VPN traffic.” And I bet those bills have by-partisan consensus… #DigitalID #Agenda2030

#Bitcoin price forecast update: The recent move down had #BTC broke down of the curved wedge for the first time since this bull market. For the bull case to have a chance of playing out (path 2), BTC needs to remain above $92k and to reclaim the wedge before the end of November. That said, I think there are good odds for this last move down to have found a temporary bottom. From here, I’m expecting a leg up that should bring Bitcoin back to the $120k area. This will probably be the last chance for the bulls to attempt a break out from the curved wedge. However, if the price falls back down and goes out of the wedge, the bull case will become very unlikely at this point. Already, I’m downgrading the probability of the bull case to 20% (from 25%) and upgrading the bear case to 70% (from 65%). Again, even if the bear case is at play, we have good chances of seeing a new ATH next year (in the $135k area ). However, this would be preceded by a drop to the $94k area. For those looking to sell some bitcoins near the top of this bull market, the next leg up may be a good time to consider doing so. As long as the price stays out of the grayed out area, the bear case will maintain a high likelihood of playing out. Emotions are high with Bitcoin trading in this range but keep in mind that this is only a 20% range over a period of 4 months. If the bear case plays out, I’m expecting a 40-50% range over the next four years. I think most long term hodlers are not prepared to navigate this type of price action… #Trading #Tradestr

It looks like 3I/Atlas is on its way out of the solar system. So even if it’s likely an engineered object, it doesn’t appear to be hostile. Government agencies have done a great job covering-up this event. #3IAtlas

#Bitcoin price forecast update: Nothing has changed since my last update except that reaching $119,261 by the end of November would not have me to reduce the odds for the bear scenario (path 1) as I was previously anticipating. Based on the structure that has developed, there are good chances that this level will be reached before the end of November without impacting the bear case. In fact, there is a lot of room for #BTC to run higher without impacting the odds for the bear case. The structure that will develop between now and the end of the year is going to matter more than the price itself to gauge whether or not the 65% odds in favor of the bear case can be reduced. That said, I think it’s unlikely for BTC to move sustainably and significantly beyond the current ATH in 2025. #Trading #Tradestr

Insane but I suspect that hinting that a politician is a #reptilian (I’m not even sure if that was your intent or if your comment was figurative) is telling something they don’t want to be propagated. I fear for Rep. Higgins…

Over the last week, I’ve seen a lot of traders on X surveying their audience on whether #Bitcoin has entered a bear market or will see a higher high next. This is a trick question because I think both are true. In #trading, no expectation should ever be absolute but rather probabilistic. However, if I had to answer this question gun to my head, I would say that #BTC has entered a bear market at the top on August 14 (defined as the shift from an impulsive structure to a corrective one) but that we’ll still see a higher high from here (corrective structure can create higher high). I would expect this bear market to be shallower but longer than previous ones. This bear market would still present great return opportunities for those willing and able to play the range. Those looking to take profits over the next few years should do so at the top of the range. The mistake that many will make is to sell at the bottom of the range when it will be obvious that the be bull market has ended. People will fear to see the typical 70% correction but I doubt we’ll see more than a 40% correction this time. But again, anything can happen and my expectation may change as the chart evolves. #Tradestr

I usually don’t set price targets based on fundamental or narratives but until the #Bitcoin network comes up with a consensual plan to migrate to quantum resistant cryptography, I think #BTC will have a hard time of reaching $200k. Whether #quantum computing is 2 or 20 years away from breaking Bitcoin, this narrative will persist and undermine BTC performance. Quantum resistance cryptography should be the focus of the devs to a greater degree than arguing about how to handle spam. I’m not sure to which extent progresses have been made on the issue.