While printing is often considered to be a relatively modern invention, actually, it is an extremely old one, as old as civilization and writing itself. Ancient cylindrical seals or rollers, often inscribed on exotic precious stones, that could roll out inscribed proclamations or symbols of authority over and over again, date from as early as 3500 B.C. These were never used to generate ancient books simply because of the extraordinary cost of inscribing these cylinders, both in terms of the materials themselves and in terms of the skilled labor and time required to perform the task of the inscription itself. It was much cheaper simply to get scribes to copy these writings on papyrus or clay, over and over again. We should bear in mind skilled copying remained a very important skill in human society well into the twentieth century. Shorthand writers were still being employed in courtrooms up until the late twentieth century. The first mechanical stenotype machines were available in the 1870's, but they were expensive, awkward and prone to breakdowns. Pen and paper cost pennies, and human labor could be very cheap still. It was the difference between an expensive high tech barrier and an easy and cheap human skill, just like in ancient Sumerian times with the ancient cylindrical printing presses for seals. In a broader sense, this ties into the limitations of Artificial Intelligence. We don't really know what "intelligence" is anyway, but what we call AI these days is just the latest incarnation of machines, machines that take advantage of advances in computer memory and speed to significantly increase the range of human tasks that can be effectively automated. However, there are many things we cannot automate, perhaps because we simply don't understand them well enough to define rules to follow for them. Will we ever understand all these rules? We may never know. #ai #technology #economics #philosophy

Iran is tightening the screws on Donald Trump. If you ever had any doubt whatsoever about what is really going on now in the "Iran War", it should be perfectly clear to you by this time. Iran won, Trump lost, but Trump simply cannot admit it, so, he is pretending to still be fighting, even though he's out of missiles, and neither the Democrats nor the Republicans will give him any more, ever. Oil prices are skyrocketing, they may get up to 150 dollars a barrel or more, and there's nothing whatsoever Trump can do about it. Stock Markets are crashing, they will continue to crash. The markets will be down 30% or more by the midterms, and, again, there's nothing whatsoever Trump can do about it. The latest polling for the midterms shows Democrats moving into double digits again in their lead over the Republicans, virtually guaranteeing them control over House and Senate. They will not be kind to Donald Trump. What will they do with him, exactly? Well, that remains to be seen, but, we can be quite certain, that Donald Trump will not like it, at all! Briefly, for a few weeks, as gas prices dropped during the "ceasefire", it looked like the Republicans were making real gains in the polls. Of course, this wasn't what Iran had in mind, so, they pulled the plug on the ceasefire, and, now, as gas prices skyrocket again -- probably to seven or eight dollars a gallon nationwide by the midterms, courtesy of the IRGC -- and the rich lose all their money in the stock markets, Democrats are getting into double digit leads again over the Republicans, that can only increase. Donald Trump is finished, courtesy of the Iranians. Donald Trump thought it would be a real good idea to murder the Iranian Supreme Leader, that this would cause "regime change". The Iranians always get their man! #geopolitics #politics #economics

These days, we are all taught to see human slavery as a great evil, perhaps the greatest of evils, certainly right up there. However, historically, the concept of slavery has certainly always had its ups and downs in terms of its social acceptability. Slavery is probably an invention of human civilization, one of its earlier inventions. Social hierarchy is inevitable in large, complex societies, there is unequal distribution of resources, because there is unequal distribution of ability. Some people will be more capable than others and so, ideally anyway, they will be rewarded more resources to work with to benefit society with. At the bottom of the social hierarchy were the slaves, often a great many of them, to serve those with more "ability" to control resources usefully for society, as a whole. In theory, anyway. Of course, historically, there have always been degrees of slavery. Indentured servitude, serfdom, forced prison labor, even marriage up to a point. Society controls people, one way or another. Wage-slavery is a somewhat ironic term, but, there is certainly something to be said for the concept. Historically, slavery has been the traditional role of anyone who was totally destitute. The idea being, with no resources, you would have no way to survive in society. Why not simply become a hunter gatherer again, like our ancient ancestors? Firstly, most people no longer had the skills ot survive as a hunter gatherer. Secondly, the world was too crowded with people now to support hunter gathering for all, or most, or even many human beings. Slavery in the old American south was something rather unique. Americans were well aware that slavery was becoming very unpopular worldwide, and that slavery was rather inefficient in terms of generating an efficient industrial economy. So, southern states made sure no more than one third of the population was black. They knew that, otherwise, a successful insurrection was very likely indeed, and the whites might not survive it. In Haiti in the 1790's, black slaves outnumbered the 40,000 white colonists and soldiers ten to one. A successful rebellion wiped out the entire white population, to the last man, woman and child. Basically, the days of black slavery were coming to an end it was no longer practical. Black slavery itself was a rather odd phenomenon, probably caused by the congruence of a number of different factors -- the racial visibility of black people in Caucasian nations, the discovery of a great, unpopulated New Rorld, and the presence of slavery in various forms in some African nations. So, Europeans could import a pretrained underclass from Africa, use them to do all the labor needed in this huge underpopulated hemisphere, and hold them by their appearance alone. Great deal! Actually, slavery had largely disappeared in Europe by this time, because of its inefficiency and church objections, but, the New World created a new incentive! #history #sociology #economics

Tamerlane the Great is a somewhat difficult character for historians to deal with. After all, he single-handedly was responsible for the deaths of some 5% of the total world population of his time. He had his soldiers build towers of skulls with mortar, very systematically, in order to act as "billboards" for what cities that wouldn't surrender to him would expect. He was certainly the most systematic in world history with this particular strategy of psychological warfare. And, he was invincible in battle. He defeated the Muslim Caliphate, the Ottoman Empire, the Mamluks, the Russians, the Mongol Golden Horde, the Poles, the Indian Empires. And, at the time of his death, he was on the verge of attacking, and probably annihilating the Chinese Ming Dynasty, which had made the mistake of attracting his attention, he hadn't known about them before they sent ambassadors demanding tribute, who he made short work of. Likely, if he hadn't developed terminal pneumonia, being an old man, on the way, he would have made very short work of the Ming Dynasty. In terms of military skill, really, he should be rated number one in all of world history, no one ever so successfully destroyed so many enemies so completely as Tamerlane the Great did. However, he's usually ranked about number ten, by historians, as a general. I think this is probably because he was so incredibly violent and destructive. And, because his empire dissolved immediately upon his death. Historians simply don't want to acknowledge that someone so purely destructive, who really left little behind of much value on his death, could have been the world's greatest conqueror. After all, many conquerors are profoundly honored by our society. If they won, and we were on their side. Prosperity, even now, is largely based on conquest. So, to associate these "honorable" conquerors, with someone as obviously violent as Tamerlane the Great, whose dominion no longer exists, goes against the grain of historians, who, after all, are professional academics, and, therefore, to some extent politicians. They fear discrediting these "noble" conquerors, OUR noble conquerors, who we, to some extent live off. These brings up the broader question of what human society, and to some extent human life is really about. And, that is a difficult question indeed! There is enormous competition in human life, and, there always has been. Modern man apparently outcompeted Neanderthal man 40,000 years ago, so Neanderthals went exitnct. So called "civilized" societies outcompeted older hunter-gatherer societies, despite the fact that up until the last couple of centuries, hunter-gathers actually had healthier lifestyles, and lived longer than most people in the civilized world. Where are we heading, and why? To what extent does the mass murdering sociopath Tamerlane the Great represent the human ideal, in a sense? Is there a better way? What is it exactly? #history #philosophy #sociology

ELON MUSK'S GREAT, UNHERALDED, UNMATCHABLE ACHIEVEMENT -- LOSING HALF A TRILLION DOLLARS IN JUST SIX WEEKS!!!! Just this year, Elon Musk has achieved something that really, until very recently, no one would have even thought possible. Indeed, I do believe this may be what Mr. Musk is most remembered for, by historians, as being, without question, his greatest, most unquestionable and unswerving achievement in his entire illustrious career. Mr. Musk has just managed, this very year, very recently indeed, to lose half a trillion dollars, in just six weeks! Has anyone ever managed to do that before? Of course not! You see, Mr. Musk has managed to single-handedly reconceptualize what used to be called "junk bonds", as "high-yield bonds". And, that's exactly what SpaceX certainly is, and to a large extent Tesla is too, now, and these are Mr. Musk's primary assets. While taking ridiculous risks on impossible ventures used to be considered rather a bad thing to do, Mr. Musk has made himself -- for the moment anyway -- by far the richest man in the world by doing just that! Now, is this a sign of Elon Musk's great prophetic genius, a sign that he knows how to get things done, a sign that he is a great scientist? Or, does it merely mean that Elon Musk is a pathological liar and manipulator leading a bunch of other very rich, pathological liars and manipulators over a cliff? You see, these days, most capital in the world is tied up in some super-rich individuals who really don't know what to do with it. So, rather than trying to do anything useful, which they really don't have a clue how to do anyway, they just sniff the air, and follow the scent of what they think might be more money. And, sometimes this works, and sometimes it doesn't. They will of course, insist that what they are doing is highly productive, but, actually, there's very little evidence for that, at all. #philosophy #economics #technology #business #capitalism

Oil just broke the $82 barrier and is headed straight up. Wall Street is getting absolutely hammered right now with the Nasdaq shedding nearly 1.8%. The economic tilt is happening in real-time. #politics #economics

Oil prices are rising sharply into economically deadly territory, as Donald Trump unwisely escalates his confrontation with Iran, in a forlorn hope of some kind of impossible, ultimate victory over the new masters of the Middle East. Now infrastructure throughout the Middle East is being attacked by both sides. Potentially, oil prices could rise to 200 dollars, even 300 dollars a barrel, if this escalates, unchecked. While, for the moment, this has not caused the collapse of GOP support in the elections in November -- indeed, the GOP has closed the gap with the Democrats by a point or two, perhaps because of aggressive public messaging by Trump himself, who knows he is, quite literally fighting for his life now against Iran -- how long can GOP support be sustained, once it becomes clear to all Americans that Donald Trump is destroying the entire economy by his unnecessary and pointless saber rattling in the Middle East? Today, we see an attempt at recovery in the Stock Markets being stifled by rapidly rising oil prices worldwide. The markets are literally going "tilt, tilt" as the price of oil makes economic recovery impossible. Will Americans, even Republicans, really want to see this continue, as Donald Trump single-handedly destroys their livelihoods, and probably even his own? I suppose anything is possible, but, actually, I sincerely doubt it. Iran is closing the trap on Donald Trump, a trap he created for himself, through his own arrogance, and stupidity. #politics #geopolitics #economics

When the British encouraged Jewish settlement in Palestine with the Balfour declaration in 1917, their objectives were not altruistic. What they had in mind, was that a Jewish state in the Middle East could keep an eye on the Arabs, act as a disruptive influence, and discourage the reestablishment of an Islamic superstate after the Ottoman Empire was dismembered at the end of WWI. And, Russia, France and the US joined with Britian in this primary geopolitical objective. Ever since the time of Muhammad, Islamic superstates had been a threat to the West, for almost 1500 years -- first, the Muslim Caliphate, and then, the Ottoman Empire. The West wanted to make sure this would never happen again, and, up to a point, they saw Israel as a means to assist them in this very practical, and rather ruthless objective. And, for several decades, after the state of Israel was founded in 1948, they did manage to keep the Arab world off balance and divided, which the West appreciated, and rewarded them for, with material aid and diplomatic support. However, with the rise of the power of an Islamic superstate of Iran, spreading its tentacles throughout the Middle East through proxies such as Hezbollah and the Houthis and the Iraqi militias, it is becoming quite clear that Israel has failed miserably in its primary mission, from the standpoint of the West. Hence, support has largely evaporated in Europe for Israel, and is now on the verge of being eliminated in its last bastion of support, the United States. Israel's use of brute force to suppress Muslim opposition to its presence in their midst is no longer fashionable, or acceptable to the West, simply because the costs are becoming too great to the international community, in terms of conflict with the emerging Islamic superstate of Iran. The West is now realizing that they will have to get along with Iran, and, so, the original function of the state of Israel --preventing this uncomfortable contingency from ever occurring --has ceased to exist. From the standpoint of the West, Israel no longer has any function at all to them, so, they are discontinuing their support. If Israel wishes to survive, they must learn to adapt to this new geopolitical reality -- the Islamic superstate of Iran -- and to find some way to make itself sufficiently useful to the world as a whole, that it may continue to exist as a Jewish State. #geopolitics #history #Israel #Islam

Donald Trump has proven so totally incompetent, that he has provided with the Democrats with a unique opportunity to make the dreams of the Founding Fathers of the United States come true. While demanding massive increases in military spending, Trump has failed miserably as commander in chief, wasting hundreds of billions of dollars in a totally failed campaign to dominate the Middle East, which has merely confirmed Iran's total domination of the Middle East. Every American is well aware of this, although they may deny it, if they are traditional supporters of Donald Trump. Hence, there is no mandate or desire to waste more money on Donald Trump's ridiculous military games against Iran. Politically, the Democrats are actually in a position to implement now, the original conception of the founding fathers of the US -- no permanent standing military at all, ever! Now, of course, the Democrats cannot come right out and say that, that would be politically incorrect, given the traditional militarism of American foreign policy. They can't say we're not going to approve any military budget at all. However, Trump's stupidity has made possible something quite close to this. The Democrats can, for the first time in US history, make it impossible to spend a thin dime of the US military budget without the explicit approval of 60 American senators, and, that is exactly what they are going to do! Americans are perfectly happy for them to do so, to effectively have a US commander in chief who is totally hamstrung by Congress, who cannot lift a finger militarily without them, and in which all, or almost all military funding, is effectively frozen, indefinitely. So, Democrats can claim they didn't cut a cent from the budget, while effectively freezing the entire military budget, and making it impossible to spend it. Now, what this means, is that the Democrats can simultaneously realize the dreams of the founders of the US, and also cut the US budget by a full 20% at a stroke! What could possibly be better? What could possibly make more economic sense, when the US President wastes this budget to actually undermine the world economy fundamentally, because of his utter stupidity and incompetence? So, the problems in funding social security suddenly disappear, as a trillion dollars is freed up to support it! Suddenly, everything is possible economically, in the US budget, as the utter waste of money on US military incompetence is revealed, and liquidated, quite painlessly, by simply making it impossible to spend it. #politics #geopolitics #history #military #economics

Trump's saber rattling has driven oil prices up to a level higher than they've been at in more than a month, and, once more, the Strait of Hormuz is fully closed to traffic. There doesn't appear to be any clear off ramp here, since neither side is even slightly inclined to compromise. Trump wants full control over the region, and, so do the Iranians. On the whole, the Iranians are in a better position to enforce their claims, largely because of geography. They are there as a nation, all Trump has is vulnerable aircraft carriers in the region, at terrific expense. The longer this goes on, the more economic problems the US and the world will have, and Iran's government and social structure largely make them immune from these kind of pressures. It seems likely that Trump will pay a very steep price in November for his military antics, which have little chance of actually impacting Iran to any significant extent, as we have seen, over and over again. So, Iran is likely to "win", simply because Trump's power base is evaporating for further action against Iran, while the Iranian regime is actually being stabilized somewhat by Trump's indiscriminate attacks on it. On the whole, Iranians prefer their own government to Trump's bombing campaigns. Simple enough, really! #poltics #geopolitics