Weekly Close Below 50-W SMA: A Classic Precursor to the Bitcoin Bear Market The battle for the 50-week SMA is over, and for now, the bears have won. Last week's close was not only below this critical level, but the indicator itself has turned negative—a clear midterm bearish signal. Why does this matter? Let's look at what this has historically meant: 📉 A Telling Transition Signal A weekly close below the 50-week SMA is not a random occurrence. It is a hallmark of a bull market's end and the transition into a bear market phase. Since 2011, this signal has flashed 6 times. In 5 of those 6 instances, it served as a critical confirmation that the trend had shifted, with Bitcoin proceeding to find its cycle low within the following year. It's not a guarantee of immediate downside, but a statistical indicator that the process of forming a major bottom has likely begun. 🔀 Contrasting Timeframes: A Dead Cat Bounce? Adding complexity, the Death Cross on the daily chart we discussed previously remains in play. These crossovers often create violent, counter-trend rallies within a larger downtrend. Don't be surprised by short-term bullish spikes; they are typical and often act as traps (or "relief rallies") before the primary trend reasserts itself. Looking Ahead If you subscribe to the traditional 4-year cycle theory (and don't believe in a permanently "extended cycle"), this analysis suggests we are now on a path that could lead to some of the best buying opportunities we've seen in years, likely as we progress into 2026. I'm curious about the community's view: When do you think we will see the next major cycle low? 1. Sooner than expected (Early 2026) 2. Classic Cycle (Sometime in 2026) 3. Later than expected (2027 or beyond) 4. The old cycle model is obsolete Let me know your thoughts below! #bitcoin #crypto #btc #investing #marketanalysis #trading

#bitcoin is currently testing its 50-week simple moving average (SMA), a key technical indicator used to assess market trends. Historically, the 50-week SMA turning negative has been a precursor to bear market conditions, signaling market weakness. Maintaining support above this level is therefore critical, as a sustained breach could indicate further downside risk, while holding above it may suggest continued market strength. Monitoring this indicator will provide important insights into Bitcoin’s near-term trend trajectory.

Bitcoin's Macro Moment: The 50-Week SMA and the Paradox of the Death Cross TL;DR: Bitcoin is at a critical decision point at the $103K 50-week SMA. History shows a close below this level often leads to a ~50% drop (5 out of 6 times). However, the 2021 exception saw a +117% rally. An incoming "Death Cross" will be the catalyst for a big move. If price is below the 50-week SMA, use the cross-induced rally as an exit. If price is above the 50-week SMA, the cross could be a bull trap launching a rally to $135K-$175K. --- The Full Analysis: Part 1: The Primary Signal - The 50-Week SMA Break The most significant signal is the weekly close relative to the 50-week SMA. The historical data is compelling: · High-Probability Bearish Case: Since 2011, a weekly close below this level has led to lower prices in 5 out of 6 instances, with an average decline of -49.55% over the following year. · The Bullish Exception: The one powerful exception was in 2021, where a slight break below was a false signal, preceding a +117% rally to a new all-time high. Part 2: The Secondary Catalyst - Demystifying the Death Cross The "Death Cross" occurs when the 50-day Simple Moving Average crosses below the 200-day Simple Moving Average. It is widely interpreted as a sign that medium-term momentum has turned bearish against the long-term trend. However, its practical impact is more nuanced: · It's a Lagging Indicator: By the time it forms, a significant price decline has already occurred. It confirms a downtrend rather than predicting one from a top. · A Magnet for Market Psychology: The Death Cross is a well-known, headline-grabbing event. This often leads to a "sell the rumor, buy the news" dynamic. The market prices in the bearishness in the days leading up to the cross. When it finally triggers, the selling pressure can be exhausted, leading to a counter-trend rally. · Context is Everything: The Death Cross is not a standalone signal. Its meaning is entirely dependent on the broader trend. The Synthesis: Two Scenarios for the Coming Volatility The interaction between these two indicators creates our roadmap: 1. Scenario A: The Breakdown (High Probability) · Trigger: A weekly close below the 50-week SMA. · Death Cross Role: A bearish confirmation. The ensuing short-covering rally (driven by the "news" of the cross) is not a buying opportunity. It is a strategic exit liquidity for those looking to de-risk before the historical pattern of lower prices plays out. 2. Scenario B: The Breakout (Low Probability, High Reward) · Trigger: A strong weekly close above the 50-week SMA. · Death Cross Role: A massive bear trap. In this context, its formation would signal that the prior downtrend has exhausted itself, potentially unleashing a violent short squeeze and fueling a powerful rally toward new all-time highs, with a target zone of $135,000 - $175,000. Conclusion: Asymmetry and Odds While the probabilities based on a decade of data favor the bearish outcome following a breakdown, the potential payoff for the bullish exception is enormous. The Death Cross will be the catalyst for volatility, but the weekly close at the 50-week SMA is the true signal that determines the direction.