Not too sure what’s going on with Bitcoin right now. Macro should be supportive: weaker dollar, looser financial conditions, Fed printing. I’m not a “BTC must always go up” guy, but historically this is exactly the environment it did well in. Yet instead we have: 1. People obsessively trying to enforce a 4 year cycle 2. The strange events of 10/10 3. Quantum FUD reaching a crescendo? likely in service of (1). A narrative is always found when a market wants one 4. DATs feel increasingly fragile. If there are levels where the structure collapses, markets have a habit of hunting them Somehow 1+2+3+4 are overpowering macro for now. Price moves far enough and for some weaker hands it triggers “did I really spend all this time, energy and money for nothing?” We all know that feeling. Add to that the “crypto” problem: too much leverage, too much extraction, too much grift and theft. FTX, 10/10. The chickens are coming home to roost, and unfortunately we correlate for now. So what next? Probably time. If we’re unlucky, we grind. If we’re lucky, we get a broader market break and the liquidity bazookas come back out. I’m increasingly coming to terms with this being another 2018–19 or 2022–23. And honestly? I didn’t hate those years. Quiet. Boring. Peaceful sat-stacking heaven. Maybe we get to watch crypto die for entertainment during it.
Came across that social media platform that AI agents made to interact between themselves, where humans are not allowed to post. Made me think. They probably set up that website hosting through a bitcoin payment, which will be the only way such agents will be able to have financial agency for lack of a better word. This is the bull case for BTC that seems not well understood. The digital economy is going to increasingly dominate. BTC is the only real and credible native digital currency in that. Hence adoption is going way the fuck up. 1 sat will equal $1
Pretty funny
What’s really interesting right now is you see a lot of “crypto” people turning on their hobby. Starting to openly hate everything Bitcoin first and foremost. I see even professionals involved in it doing this. Unbelievable lol, the professional waffling class that joined us is capitulating at the first 35% drawdown. Buying more
You kind of need to let legacy social media come to a slow boil and boil alive in its own pot tbh. You can of course point out to the intelligent ones in the pot (whether they have 100 or 100,000 followers) that they're participating in the largest public propaganda psyop the world has ever seen and get them to jump out But I don't think you want the ones that are actively collaborating with the regime(s) to turn up the heat to show up here. Just my humble opinion.
Do you like that sell off, gold fanatics? Live by the gun die by the gun
What I find incredibly irritating about the Bitcoin scene, or I guess in this case better attributed to the “crypto” scene, is this tendency for an army of talking heads to want to project their fears and narratives on the coin. Something like gold just exists. You buy it or not, people understand that their endless screeching about it won’t change the world’s perception of it or its value. With Bitcoin people have this incessant need to scream how it’s digital gold, related to Trump, or to China. It’s about muh four year cycles, debasement, the Fed. It’s about inflation, this group is buying or that group is selling. Why can’t you just shut the fuck up and show some humility? Bitcoin exists and it doesn’t give a fuck about what you think it is or it isn’t, and your words about it won’t change a goddam thing in its trajectory. Thanks for coming to my ted talk
People don’t realise that many of the loudest Bitcoin or “crypto” voices on X are people with severe mental illness that built their accounts by just being around and interacting during the hype years, and then when all sound of mind people left, they stuck around. Many of them are failures in life and grumpy haters projecting their own sadness onto Bitcoin. There’s zero signal there.
Watching talking heads try to short bitcoin into the ground because muh four year cycle while they declare it dead twelve times a day and its price hovers in a tight 10% range for months is good entertainment
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About Me
Portfolio manager (EM debt, rates, FX). De- vs centralisation is the left/right of our age. Bitcoin, markets, life, family etc. Writing into the void
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