good analysis. i like your idea that since bitcoin is much easier to buy/sell so investors are putting it off for longer. maybe they are playing a little game of who can flinch first with the markets on all these flashier things like paper silver. a guest on a Peter Diamandis podcast with Cathie Wood just mentioned that Iranians already use bitcoin for exchange of goods on the black market but use gold as more long term store of value. so Iranians have already gotten to "later" point you mention. i found it interesting that although stable coins seem to be more popular than bitcoin, at least for Iranians, bitcoin should be preferred out of sanction fears... it will be interesting. my respect for bitcoin has only increased the last month since setting up my own Alby self hosted lightning wallet. I can setup lightning "bank accounts" for friends and family. the next generation will never have to see the inside of a bank again. the combination with BitRefill is very convenient for purchases at most major retailers. i used to turn my nose up at gift cards. it's actually more convenient for gas stations: i don;t know how a lightning transaction for a gas tank fill-up would work unless they make an exception to allow post-pay,

maybe!? there were some crashes in Mexico, Spain & US recently maintenance doesn't get funded, but new infrastructure does. it may be due to new projects being easier to overbill or something

the gentle ladies from Promethean Action can say what they want about the British empire, but wow were they incredible at building railway infrastructure. Apparently the maintenance problem is affecting all humans across the globe. Will AI can find the genes responsible for designing/ building/maintaining public infrastructure and reintroduce them? https://tribune.com.pk/article/98095/pakistan-cant-maintain-its-railways-why-are-we-planning-a-62b-corridor

i had a hitchhiker (not the kind from Skinwalker Ranch), but a tiny mouselike creature that didn't run away like a mouse. so i got closer. he was smaller than a mouse with a long snout and didn't seem to see me peering at him around the corner of a box in basement. i assume he had landed in a spaceship from the outer meadow: a log with a hole and some straw sticking out that i was using for firewood. here he was in this dry and inhospitable planet far away from earthworms. he ran away under the boxes. the alien needed to be caught before succumbing to the desert of the basement. i would never be able to find him in time. I said a prayer. i went to the restroom. there he was on the bright linoleum floor against the bathtub. i used a McDonald's coffee cup to abduct him, sealed the hatch, and whisked him out into the snow. thank God for prayer. i don't have to clean the basement now.

that reminds me of multiple people saying that the 2000 stock market bubble was kicked into the 2008 mortgage bubble which is being kicked into the 202X bond market bubble that's kinda scary because that's supposed to be the "risk free rate" and that's what they are hoovering up all this economic energy to protect. i don't quite understand it

I've found coracle needs a cache cleanup every now and again. Somewhere in the history tab/clear cache options

At the time I thought she just mistook my hand for the oarlock

oh, yeah, didn't mean to put words in your mouth. You say tools on the bench, and i say dreams in the ether

it took me 3 people over ~5 years to get any bitcoin. i laughed at all 3 until finally i decided to prove one of them wrong by buying a little bit so i could show them how much better off they would have been when it went to 0.

it's weird to think about. the countries will need to keep stockpiling gold as well to make sure the marginal price stays high to keep their trade advantage. it seems a bit like trying to walk backwards on a rolling walkway. countries choosing gold are basically running the Saylor playbook but with gold instead of bitcoin. get giant stockpile-->make scarce-->inflate price-->buy stuff that debasement for gold is about 1-2% a year, so their chosen means their of exchange on top of their stockpile is a little leaky. in addition to having to hire a lot of Archimedes to sit in bathtubs and weigh gold bars. i'm already creating a secret society of gold surveyors where we will collude to set prices.

are you suggesting the theory that technology is seeded into multiple people's brains at once? i believe something similar happened with fixed winged flight. the Brazilians have someone they claim invented it at the same time as the Wright brothers. there were the Lumiere bros in Lyon with cinematography while Edison was doing hist hing.

looking up "dole bludger" ahaha. we shall see. i do kinda wish i knew someone with kids who were entering job-market to hear what it's like.

yah, i shouldn't have used the h* word. there are many good people reading the paper and it's a good graphic... someone explained to me how "pay-for-play" works for traditional politicians--$500,000 speaking engagements at universities, institutions, etc in return for access. --and how this president was barred from that tasteful grift. so i cut him a lot of slack. especially since the people also opted in to those by purchasing those alt coins. i don't think taxpayers/students opted in to the standard grift. besides, who knows, maybe he will make his coin supply more valuable than bitcoin. after all every company who issues shares without believing they can do better than bitcoin is effectively scamming it's shareholders.

you just gave me an idea for a new job: applying to be Archimedes at local port. after all, gold surveying is going to have to be done at a massive scale for this trade to happen. i wonder how many gold bars will need to change hands at the margin for just normal trade.

Readers of this paper should feel good that he paid himself by "scamming" people that the readers of this paper most likely hate anyway.

survivorship bias? is that the same as lindy effect for gold?

Spot on. The older cars are more fun anyway. sharing a house is more fun

if I may ask why "why AI"?

your next book is going to have to be something like "how to deal with spouse who has started listening to bitcoin podcasts: a four year journey" or something

yeah, "listen here you, young whippersnapper"

the last person who asked me such questions was from California. i don't know what they put in the sunshine over there