//The Wire//2300Z October 27, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: FUGITIVE SEARCH ENDS IN U.K. AS MISTAKENLY RELEASED DEPORTATION CANDIDATE RECAPTURED. US NAVY LOSES TWO AIRCRAFT IN SOUTH CHINA SEA. VENEZUELA CONTINUES WARTIME PREPARATIONS.//
 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
South America: Venezuelan forces continue to make plans for an American invasion by hardening infrastructure and deploying defenses as best they can. Over the weekend many Venezuelan citizens have posted their military's movements on social media, at least one of which included the location of a Venezuelan SA-17 GRIZZLY Surface-to-Air Missile Battalion.
Analyst Comment: TikTok and social media in general are the death of OPSEC in any nation, and Venezuela is no exception. Even the Venezuelan military has no real concept of digital security, and even pointing out these OPSEC violations to them directly doesn't really seem to matter much.
Otherwise, American presence patrols continue as before. Some Venezuelans were able to observe what they described as American vessels on the horizon, confirming the US Navy and US Marine Corps continue to conduct operations quite literally just outside Venezuela's territorial waters.
Far East: Over the weekend two US Navy aircraft were lost at sea due to two separate aviation mishaps. One MH-60R Sea Hawk from the USS *Nimitz* was lost at sea while conducting routine operations in the South China Sea. All three crew members survived the crash, and were recovered from the water. About an hour later, one F/A-18F Super Hornet (also assigned to the *Nimitz*) also went down, with both crew members ejecting and being recovered from the water safely.
Analyst Comment: Despite the seeming rarity of two downed aircraft occurring at nearly the same time, these things do indeed happen occasionally. Two aircraft going down due to mishaps within an hour of each other is not exactly a frequent occurrence, but it does happen, especially since the US Navy continues an extremely intense tempto of operations. An investigation will be conducted, to be certain, but at the moment these disasters point to the nature of these types of operations...it's a risky business. As such, it is a sheer miracle that all of those involved survived these incidents, and several investigations are likely to be carried out to determine the causation of these mishaps. Until more information is known, there's no telling what led to the loss of either aircraft.
United Kingdom: Hadush Kebatu was recaptured after a day-long manhunt yesterday. He was able to evade capture for two days, despite not even trying to evade detection. Authorities claim that they are still investigating what allegedly went wrong in order for him to be released by mistake in the first place, but so far no details on this have been released to the public.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: So far, the development of the Kebatu case has been host to many concerning details which have inflamed tensions higher than they already are. For instance, he initially tried to return to the detention facility after his release, and remained in the vicinity of the facility for several hours. Eventually detention facility staff escorted him to the train station, and helped him escape. He was given a prepaid card with money, and generally spent the day walking around London on a light shopping spree, in one of the most heavily surveilled cities on Earth. Every few hours the Met released a new video of him milling around, but somehow managed to evade capture for the entire day, completely unaware that a nationwide manhunt was underway for him. In the end, it wasn't even the police that apprehended him...a local citizen spotted him in a public park which resulted in his recapture.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
S2Underground2d
This week's intel update is out 👍 https://youtu.be/Yee4GINRPTc
S2Underground3d
//The Wire//2300Z October 24, 2025//
//PRIORITY//
//BLUF: U.K. MISTAKENLY RELEASES MIGRANT THAT SPARKED THE EPPING RIOTS, MANHUNT UNDERWAY FOR THE FUGITIVE. BRITISH DIGITAL ID SCHEME TO TARGET CITIZENS FOR NONCOMPLIANCE. VEHICLE RAMMING ATTACK REPORTED AT COAST GUARD BASE IN CALIFORNIA. USA TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA TERMINATED AS CANADA LAUNCHES PROPAGANDA AD CAMPAIGN.//
 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
United Kingdom: In an interview regarding the Digital ID scheme, PM Starmer revealed that the penalty for not getting and using a Digital ID will be a fee of ÂŁ85 for every instance of financial transaction that would ordinarily require an ID under this new plan.
This afternoon, a separate situation developed as a major police operation was declared in Essex after the Epping Hotel attacker was allegedly mistakenly released from prison. Hadush Gerberslasie Kebatu was released by police this morning, rather than being deported. Currently a manhunt is underway, and local citizens are urged to be on the lookout for the violent criminal. Local police have not provided a description of Kebatu other than his mugshot, however a local citizen posted a video on social media after they spotted a man matching his description carrying his belongings in a clear trash bag. This footage was taken before the wanted notice went out, and the grey sweat/tracksuit he was wearing matches the description that court reporters visually saw him wearing earlier that day in court.
Geolocation of this video evidence places Kebatu's last known location outside a cafe at Number 84 on the High Street in Chelmsford. The video cuts off before Kebatu's destination could be confirmed, but his last known azimuth places him traveling North up High Street, toward the bus station.
Analyst Comment: Kebatu is an Ethiopian national who assaulted a child and a woman in Epping back in July, prompting the now-infamous Epping Riots. He had only been detained for roughly a month, and was supposed to be deported as a way of the British government showing that they do indeed deport violent criminals. However this shining example of good faith has been dashed, and the already dismal public sentiment on the issue is about to get a lot worse.
To put it lightly, it is in Mr. Kebatu's very best interest for the *police* to find him as soon as possible. On the one hand, it is true that the British government let a violent criminal out of jail. But on the other hand that also means that he is no longer under police protection, he has no documentation, doesn't speak English, and no one knows where he is. Anyway, a few protests and demonstrations are well underway in Epping, and time is of the essence to find him, before the trail goes cold.
Canada: The United States has suspended trade negotiations with Canada due to the discovery of a propaganda campaign targeting Americans. The government of Ontario ran a $75 million ad campaign featuring a speech by Ronald Reagan, in which he spoke negatively about the idea of tariffs. This speech, however, was a fabrication using clips and words selectively cut from Reagan's 1987 address in order to make it look like Reagan was not in favor of tariffs...when the actual uncut speech was actually in favor of tariffs.
Analyst Comment: There's a saying in the world of psyops...a deception campaign can never fail. Even if discovered, the deception effort will cause doubt as to what's real, so there will always be some level of effectiveness. In this case, Canadian officials thought they were being cute by playing fast and loose, but this was not simply a harmless meme or something obviously fake. The content that was produced was fully intended to take the place of true information, and when carried out by a nationstate to manipulate the internal sentiment of a foreign nation, this a very serious charge. The sheer scale of this propaganda campaign is also significant...this wasn't just some local TV ad, it was a multi-million-dollar national ad campaign. As such, this one act has severely damaged relations with the United States, so Canada is going to have to make a gargantuan move of good faith in the international arena to get back to a baseline from which to negotiate. As of this afternoon, PM Carney spoke to the Premier of Ontario, which agreed to pause the ad campaign, but the damage has already been done.
-HomeFront-
USA: Several vehicle ramming attacks on federal authorities have been reported over the past few days. In California, an unidentified individual attempted to ram a US Coast Guard checkpoint at the base in Alameda. Base security opened fire on the vehicle (which was a U-Haul truck), causing a brief small arms engagement. After being hit with many rounds, the driver of the vehicle was able to drive away from the base, and the vehicle was later found abandoned on an adjacent street. The driver of the vehicle remained at large for some time, but was later arrested with a gunshot wound to their abdomen. Two other rioters were wounded during the engagement, but are expected to survive.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Regarding the attempted vehicle ramming attack in California, some may be confused as to why this individual used their vehicle in the manner that they did, as in, why did they try to ram a vehicle checkpoint by reversing into it? Right now, all we have is speculation, but there are a few doctrinal reasons that might help explain why this seemingly unique situation developed.
Firstly, this is a common attack vector, especially among ANTIFA militants. Plausible deniability is the name of the game with many ANTIFA "Direct Action" attacks, and they are exceptionally good at it. In this case, standing before a judge, the driver can say "your honor, I was just backing up my vehicle to turn around and leave the area, and they started shooting at me". This manipulative and subversive line of thinking is the bedrock of most "black-bloc" ideologies and has worked out extremely well for them both in court, and among the mainstream media.
Secondly, there is a practical element to this as well...it's harder to shoot and kill the driver if the vehicle is attacking in reverse. The driver can't be seen easily, and as proven by this engagement, security forces can mag-dump into the vehicle all they want, and the rear of the vehicle will provide some level of protection. Particularly if there is something solid in the cargo space in the back. ISIS militants in Syria, for example, also learned that vehicles attacking in reverse, while slow and hard to drive, also offered greater protection for the engine block, so that a vehicle could get closer to a checkpoint before being stopped. Similarly, practice runs for future VBIED attacks are commonly carried out in this manner by any number of insurgent groups.
In this case, there's no telling what the driver was trying to do. This facility had been targeted all day long by ANTIFA militants, who had attempted to lay siege to the bridge leading to this island complex. ANTIFA intelligence networks had identified ICE personnel using the Coast Guard base as a staging area for operations in San Francisco, thus prompting the initial confrontation that eventually resulted in the ramming attack and shooting. However, at the time of the attack, most of the demonstrators/rioters had departed the area, proving once again that it's not over until it's over, and that complacency while an event is winding down might be fatal. Thankfully in this case the situation remained a limited small arms engagement, and didn't escalate into a wider attack.
Regardless of the information warfare and deception tactics being used here, what is unquestionable is that this attack (and the countless others like it) are a deliberate action. Not just a deliberate attack itself (or preparation for a future attack), but also efforts are intentionally carried out with the goal of manipulating the media coverage of an attack. This makes the truth hard to verify in the heat of the moment, and most dangerously, might cause hesitation or delay on the part of security forces when an attack is underway. This is the overall goal of this type of action, to cause hesitation and buy a few seconds time for the attacker to make good on their plans.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
S2Underground4d
//The Wire//2300Z October 23, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UNREST CONTINUES IN IRELAND AS CENSORSHIP CRACKDOWN INTENSIFIES. ILLEGAL MIGRANT FROM INDIA CAUSES FATAL CRASH IN CALIFORNIA. MIGRANT WOES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT EUROPE.//
 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The war continues as before. Following Israeli strikes in Lebanon a few days ago, more significant airstrikes were reported in southern Lebanon overnight. Yesterday evening the Israeli Knesset voted to annex the West Bank, a move which has drawn slight criticism from the United States due to the war continuing to widen after the ceasefire was broken last week. SECSTATE Marco Rubio condemned this vote and VP Vance stated that Israel will not be allowed to annex the West Bank.
Italy: A man was arrested on Tuesday after attempting to kidnap a child from a stroller near the train station in Bologna. Local authorities state that the man, who is an illegal immigrant from Gambia, approached a family on the sidewalk and attempted to grab their newborn child from their stroller. After local citizens fought back against him, he fled the scene before being arrested later in an adjacent park. The suspect has not been identified due to allegedly being a juvenile, but locals did state that he was an asylum seeker living at the local migrant housing complex near the attack site.
-HomeFront-
California: The driver of a semi truck who caused a fatal pileup on I-10 yesterday has been arrested. Jashanpreet Singh, an illegal immigrant from India, was arrested on multiple counts after the crash, including DUI. 3x people were killed during the crash, and 4x others wounded.
Analyst Comment: Singh was illegally in the United States after walking over the southern border in 2022. After being initially detained, he was released into society by Customs and Border Patrol due to the catch-and-release open-border policy at the time.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In Ireland, the situation remains as tense as expected. One of the major issues with discerning the truth regarding events on the ground is the now-infamous Online Safety Act, which has been adopted by the European Union as the Digital Services Act (DSA) This is more or less the EU copying Starmer's homework and bringing the Online Safety Act to most of Europe. The DSA and the local regulations put into effect by the Irish government (most notably the chairman of the media commission Jeremy Godfrey) have resulted in a lot of the footage of protest activity being banned from being seen from Irish IP addresses. Users on X for example, have noted that their content is banned from view in Ireland, even content that is benign in nature but related to protest activity. This means that either the Irish government and/or the European Commission itself has ordered X to remove certain content by flagging it as "adult content" and thus subject to the Digital Services Act.
In other words, exactly what everyone thought would happen, has happened. And not only happened once, but has been industrialized. Content which makes government agencies look bad, or otherwise highlights the crimes of violent migrants gets flagged as "adult content" and therefore is subject to censorship via the Online Safety Act and requires a photo ID (or a digital ID) to see. Right now, there are probably a lot of people in Ireland that have no understanding of the scale of protests and demonstrations (or even what the issue is all about) due to this censorship. This has been made worse by other larger issues that have actually made it into the mainstream press.
Yesterday, the family of Josef Puska was sentenced for their various roles in the murder of Ashling Murphy. These sentences have inflamed tensions once more due to the nature of the crime itself, and the systemic coverup of the incident. While walking on a hiking path back in 2022, Ashling Murphy was brutally abused and murdered by Josef Puska, a member of the Roma community. During the investigation, it became known that his entire family helped him conceal the crime, and court documents reveal they did so due to this cultural tradition (or at least that was the defense offered up in court). The murderer's sisters-in-law helped him by burning his blood-soaked clothing after the murder, and routinely lied to police throughout the investigation. Yesterday, both of these women were sentenced to less than two years in prison, despite being accessory to the brutal murder. Other family members involved in "closing ranks" (as the judge put it) regarding the coverup of this case were similarly sentenced with a slap on the wrist.
Once again, considering the crackdown on journalistic reporting concerning migrant crimes, it is crucial to understand that these are the details as they are conveyed by the BBC itself. Whenever the BBC is able to write an article like this, the situation is very serious indeed. Considering this case, and the cultural detail that the Roma community doesn't exactly have a great reputation at large throughout Europe historically, the timing of these judgements is rather poor. This has heaped gasoline on the fire already smoldering in Ireland...so the situation is a bit hot at the moment.
This is also most important for understanding the crimes that are still being committed on a gargantuan scale. For instance, in Dublin yesterday...the same day as mass riots due to an immigrant snatching a child off the street....another migrant was caught by local citizens attempting to grab another child in the same exact manner, in the exact same city. In this case, thankfully local Irishmen stepped up and allowed a "situation" to develop that stopped the attack, but this provides some insight as to the scale of migrant crime in Europe...insight which Europeans themselves cannot even see most of the time due to outright government-mandated censorship.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z October 21, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: JAPAN ELECTS NEW PRIME MINISTER. DISSENT IN IRELAND AS HIGH-PROFILE MIGRANT CRIME STRIKES DUBLIN.//
 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Japan: Last night Sanae Takaichi was selected to be Japan's first female PM following the striking of a new coalition deal in Parliament.
Analyst Comment: Things might get rather interesting in Japan as Takaichi is the most politically conservative PM (by Japanese standards) that Japan has had since Shinzo Abe. Japanese internal politics is often strange to observe from a western perspective, however this election does signal a desire to shift to the political right for the Japanese.
Ireland: Authorities are allegedly investigating the assault of a child at a migrant center in Dublin. A 10-year-old girl was found on the grounds of the Citywest Hotel in Dublin after being assaulted by an African migrant. The migrant in question had an active deportation order since March, but had not been deported. Following the revelation of this story, locals protested outside this migrant facility this afternoon. These protests rapidly turned into a riot, and at least one police vehicle was set on fire outside the facility.
-HomeFront-
Georgia: Yesterday a man was arrested after threatening to conduct a small arms attack at Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport in Atlanta. Billy Cagle was arrested after he livestreamed his attack plans on social media, before traveling to the airport to conduct the attack. His family members saw the livestream and notified law enforcement immediately, which led to his arrest in the South Terminal before he was able to conduct the attack.
Analyst Comment: This appears to be more of a mental illness situation rather than the standard terror attack. Granted, bullets don't discriminate so in the heat of the moment this was still a very clear and present danger regardless. He was detained at the scene with a rifle in his vehicle, so his threats were probably not idle.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Regarding the situation in Ireland, anytime Irish authorities are this forthcoming with details involving migrant crime, the situation is very serious. This migrant center has been turned into permanent housing for migrants (to the tune of €148 million), and has been the source of scandal following months of locals being terrorized by the inhabitants of this hotel. This facility is also under the protection of the Gardai, as this housing center has been the target of protests by ethnic Irishmen. This has led many to question how a migrant was able to kidnap a child and drag her to the facility, which was being protected by private security guards as well as police. Considering the gravity of the situation at hand, this might be yet the latest catalyst in keeping tensions hot in Ireland.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
S2Underground16d
This week's intel update is out! https://youtu.be/K7lpNcHdIk0
S2Underground20d
//The Wire//2300Z October 7, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ISRAELI GOVERNMENT LAUNCHES CAMPAIGN TARGETING THE GPS POSITION OF AMERICAN CHRISTIANS DURING WORSHIP SERVICES. PRAVDA PUBLISHER DEAD AFTER FALL FROM APARTMENT WINDOW. GERMAN MAYOR WOUNDED IN STABBING ATTACK.//
 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Germany: Overnight the Mayor of Herdecke, Iris Stalzer, remains in critical condition after being jumped and stabbed by a group of men.
Analyst Comment: As is customary in Germany, very few details have been released on this case. However, locals observed Stalzer's own adopted son being taken from the scene in handcuffs and an evidence-preserving suit. Locals state that she was attacked and mugged by a group of migrants, and that when police arrived they discovered that her own adopted son was part of the gang that attacked her. Right now, this is purely rumor and only a single photo adds credence to the claims that her son was involved in some way. Time will tell what the truth is in this case, and in the absence of information there's not much to go on either way.
Russia: Yesterday afternoon the publisher of Pravda died after falling from a window in Moscow. Vyacheslav Leontyev was discovered deceased after falling from his 5th-story apartment window, with local authorities stating that he jumped after experiencing a nervous breakdown.
-HomeFront-
USA: Controversy has mounted following the publishing of FARA documents pertaining to surveillance operations at Christian churches throughout the western United States. Last week, the official Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs partnered with (or created themselves, the ownership data is sketchy) an LLC in the United States by the name of "Show Faith By Works, LLC". As this company is directly controlled by a foreign government, it was required to register under the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA). In the 86 page registration form, the organizers self-describe this company as being formed to carry out the "largest Geofencing and targeted Christian Digital Campaign ever". This would be accomplished by geofencing most churches in the region and displaying targeted ads to Christians specifically with reference to the October 7th attacks while they are actively attending a church service (per the paperwork that was filed).
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Everyone is strongly encouraged to read the documentation yourself, as linked below on the official US government website.
Overall, what this means in the clearest possible terms, is that if you are a Christian who brings your cell phone to church in the western United States, the government of Israel is openly and publicly surveilling your phone and your exact GPS coordinates. If anyone did not surmise such before, this paperwork confirms beyond all doubt that this is occurring. As a reminder, this is not a private company...this is the actual Israeli government purchasing analytics data from American service providers.
As such Christians who bring their phones into Church during worship times, will very likely receive targeted advertisements to encourage them to think a certain way about the October 7th attacks while in Church, as the paperwork specifically states that smartphones owned by Christians will be targeted during worship times.
The documentation detailing this campaign also is not limited to Churches...the GPS tracking merely starts once a Christian enters into the geofenced area around a Church. If a Christian enters a church perimeter, but later leaves...the surveillance of their GPS position will continue. The geofencing barriers being placed around churches are merely to identify which smartphones belong to Christians. If a person's phone enters the church grounds on a certain time on Sunday morning, this device can be associated with Christianity, and once that association is made, targeted ads (and further surveillance) can be undertaken at a later time and place. Most analytics data that is available for purchase on the free market is anonymized...buyers can't tell what your phone number or name is. But based on the context of a person being physically located inside a church, this is good enough for Israeli governmental needs when it comes to this information campaign. It is this association that is important...the aggregation of the geographic context of one's position is concerning.
Using these geofencing parameters, this campaign is not really about serving ads while a person is in church...it's a mass database of Christians.
All of this is allegedly being done to push pro-Israel propaganda, as openly admitted by their own documentation. They even put together many powerpoint slides detailing the plans of the campaign, as well as a list of allegedly every single church that has been targeted for this operation. All things considered, the only reason we know about this effort is because the actual government of Israel created this company...if it were instead a shell company or an "American owned" entity, no one would know this surveillance is taking place and service providers would happily sell their customers' data to the highest bidder secretly. Foreign governments target American citizens for advertising purposes all the time, usually on topics like tourism. What makes this campaign worthy of mention is that it is attempting to be the largest in history, and it's targeting Americans purely and solely based on their faith.
Furthermore, considering Israel's history with electronic devices, and the nature of this alleged ad campaign specifically to target Christians for their faith and church attendance, there are much wider concerns than a simple ad being displayed on one's social media timeline. The same foreign government that exploded devices in the pockets of their enemies is now openly and specifically targeting Christian smartphones...and the US government is fine with it as long as they fill out a form first. When American citizens have to think about putting their phone in a Faraday bag before they pull in to the church parking lot on Sunday, just so that a foreign government doesn't track them back to their home afterward...this is a problem. Openly paying clergymen money to specifically read a script spouting the talking points of a nationstate leaves very little uncertainty as to what the overall goals of this endeavor are.
And while this situation is not new by any means, and may even be pencil-whipped into being legal over the years, pretending that this behavior is not abhorrent is also disingenuous. If this exact effort were to be carried out by any other nation, very serious consequences would result. But because of what has become obvious in American politics, there is almost zero chance that there will be any pushback on this at all, at least from federal agencies.
On February 5, 2025, Attorney General Pam Bondi signed a memo to all DoJ employees, outlining her initiatives for the Department after being appointed to the position. This memo specifically referenced her initiative to change FARA reporting requirements for the first time in decades. This memo ordered the disbanding the NSA's Corporate Enforcement Unit, as well as the Foreign Influence Task Force. Granted, random government "task forces" aren't often effective at much, so this could have just been routine downsizing after a change of power in Washington. However, the overall strategic goal of the DoJ as outlined in this memo is clear: to downsize and deprioritize FARA policing efforts.
More broadly, while this is a brazen effort by a foreign government, it would be very foolish to assume that this is the first time such action has been undertaken. These documents, while quite illuminating for some, are the least surprising "smoking gun" documents to come to light in recent memory. Even this campaign is not alone, there are two other wings of this operation. PROJECT ESTHER is a similar effort also being carried out by the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and is the line of effort that specifically targets social media influencers to push pro-Israeli messaging. The other branch of this operation is the PROJECT 545 initiative (which is the more well-funded aspect of these efforts). This more generalized program is intended to launch a $145 million dollar propaganda campaign to target Americans in general with specific pro-Israeli messaging.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
This weeks intel update is out 👍 https://youtu.be/GFlEyIFAMAI
S2Underground10d
//The Wire//2300Z October 17, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: NARCO SUBMARINE SUNK IN CARIBBEAN. HAMAS FIGHTER ARRESTED IN LOUISIANA. WHITE HOUSE SOFTENS STANCE ON CHINA TRADE WAR.//
 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Caribbean: The Pentagon announced the targeting of another vessel off the coast of Venezuela. The footage of the strike has not been released yet, however President Trump stated during a press conference this morning that the strike was not on a fastboat, but rather a semi-submersible craft transporting large amounts of narcotics. This strike is also the first to result in survivors; two individuals were rescued from the water by a US Navy helicopter after the vessel was sunk.
Analyst Comment: The footage of this strike will be interesting to see, it if is ever released. One of the reasons that it hasn't been released yet is possibly due to OPSEC concerns...the Navy probably doesn't want narcotics traffickers to know what their submarines look like when viewed with American sensors.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - Following last week's announcement of a 100% blanket tariff on China, President Trump made slightly contradictory statements yesterday regarding what the general plan is. In follow-on interviews, Trump stated that the tariff is "not sustainable, but that's what the number is", but also responded positively to China overall, stating that things were going well and the meeting with President Xi Jinping in South Korea will continue as planned previously.
Louisiana: This afternoon the FBI announced the arrest of a Hamas fighter that allegedly took part in the October 7th attacks in Israel. Mahmoud Amin Ya’qub al-Muhtadi was arrested in Lafayette after having gained legal entry to the United States in 2024 (though he did lie about his alleged career as a fighter in Gaza in order to get a legal visa fraudulently).
Analyst Comment: This marks the first major arrest by AG Bondi's Joint Task Force 10-7, which was stood up in February with the goal of investigating the Oct 7th attacks.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Of note, another round of "No Kings" protests have been scheduled for tomorrow, October 18th. So far, the event organizers appear to be re-using the same map from last time; most of the protests are carbon-copies of the events that were planned during the first round of protests. This strongly indicates that, like the first time, most of these protests won't happen and the online map is mostly meant to make the movement seem larger than it really is. Even so, while this series of events itself is probably a giant pile of nothing, there are many different social/political groups that are extremely upset right now, and groups in larger cities might use this weekend event as a catalyst for their own desires. ANTIFA will probably break things as usual, and many different senior retirement homes are likely to take part in the events like the first major No Kings protest day. Small arms attacks are likely, if nothing more than from uncoordinated security (such as the Salt Lake City shooting during the initial protests).
Other concerns that could cause more kinetic situations lie in the world of social media and the lack of any cooling of tensions among far-left groups. In a podcast two days ago, former CNN anchor Don Lemon encouraged illegal immigrants to obtain firearms and violently resist ICE deportation operations. Brushing aside the minor detail that it is a felony for illegals to possess firearms due to being criminals, this does highlight the risks moving forward. Like it or not, people do indeed listen to influencers, on the political left and right. When an issue as vitriolic as illegal immigration comes on the scene, the potential is high for lone-wolf attacks to be carried out by some mentally ill individual who listened to the internet. The recent sniper attack on the ICE facility in Dallas is evidence of this, and the countless vehicle ramming attacks carried out by mentally unstable individuals points to the sheer number of people who are interested in carrying out further violence. Right now there are almost zero indicators that this risk will be reduced, and most people encouraging these attacks (as well as those carrying out the attacks themselves) have shown no interest whatsoever in toning things down.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
S2Underground10d
//The Wire//2300Z October 16, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MULTIPLE IED ATTACKS STRIKE ECUADOR AS CONFLICT COMBATING ILLEGAL MINING INTENSIFIES. MIDDLE EAST PEACE DEAL ON UNCERTAIN GROUND AS TENSIONS CONTINUE RISING ON ALL SIDES. VENEZUELAN MILITARY SHIP REPORTEDLY BECOMES GROUNDED DURING TRAINING MISSION.//
 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Ecuador: The situation continues to deteriorate following a crackdown initiative targeting illegal mining operations. Many explosions have been reported over the past few days as mining groups affiliated with the Los Lobos cartel have taken to using their mining explosives in order to create IEDs targeting people and critical infrastructure. Two bridges were blown up yesterday in Guayaquil, and a Vehicle-Borne IED (VBIED) was detonated in the same city targeting the city mall. After this blast, another large IED was discovered in a vehicle somewhere in the city, which failed to explode.
Analyst Comment: These IED attacks are the latest in a long series of woes in Ecuador. The situation sharply deteriorated back in 2023 with the assassination of Fernando Villavincencio, a Presidential candidate that was murdered just a few days before he was expected to win the election. This made a bad situation worse and Ecuador spiraled down into a defacto state of civil war, with belligerents mostly being aligned with the Los Choneros cartel and government forces. Over the past few months, prison riots, mass killings via gangs, and now IED blasts have become more common. The connection to why this matters to the US, is that back in 2018 one of the main power-players in Ecuador was the Tren de Aragua criminal syndicate.
Venezuela: Yesterday a Venezuelan naval vessel ran aground off the coast while conducting a training mission. The ARV Capana (an amphibious landing ship) was observed by locals running aground on a sand bar, which resulted in her becoming stuck for a few hours.
Middle East: The situation has remained both tense and chaotic as the return of captives' remains to Israel and various other developments continue to be a sticking point for lasting peace. Hamas officials have stated that there aren't any more remains that they can get to at the moment, which has caused tension.
Analyst Comment: Major offensives remain tabled by both sides for now, however Hamas has conducted many mass-executions of alleged collaborators and/or spies, which has drawn the ire of President Trump who went as far as to threaten direct American intervention in Gaza (comments which he reversed-course on during a later press call). While that possibility is probably more of a knee-jerk threat than anything (after all, Hamas executing their own people for allegedly being spies doesn't really violate the peace agreement itself). Nevertheless, no one is out of the woods yet on this accord, and the situation can certainly flare back up into a big problem once again at the slightest provocation by any party.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - This morning the White House announced that President Trump spoke with President Putin by phone, and that the conversation was very long and productive. Based on the description of the call as posted to President Trump's social media account, the call was positive and resulted in the scheduling of direct talks between the United States and Russia regarding the ending of the war in Ukraine.
Analyst Comment: The implementation of higher-level direct talks with Russia is a positive sign, which has come about after weeks of decreasing relations regarding the war. The implementation of these talks also casts a bit of doubt on President Trump's previous statements regarding pushing Ukraine to conduct more offensives. Lately, there's been a lot of talk on the war by everyone involved, so it's anyone's guess as to whether or not all parties are interested in settling this war, but this will be a situation to monitor closely as talks continue.
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Analyst Comments: As one might expect, Venezuela has not acknowledged the Capana incident, nor are they likely to do so. Due to the nature of the information, at the moment all we have to go on is the standard shaky-cam footage provided by eyewitness observers, along with some aerial footage which does seem to show the vessel sitting lower in the water than she normally would. Considering that embarrassing incidents like this are often played up for effect by Venezuela's adversaries, the reports that the vessel has sunk are probably not true, at least not yet. Nevertheless, this does highlight the high-stakes nature of the fight, should war be the chosen course of action.
As comedic as it sometimes is to see a nation flounder their opportunity to act tough, Venezuela is indeed preparing for war at a breakneck pace. Many coastal roads have been fortified to prepare for amphibious landings, and many border crossings are now impassable due to checkpoints. Clearly Venezuelan naval forces think they have a chance, and various army units have also been featured on local TV stations demonstrating their rapid-deployment capabilities. Most of Venezuela's uniformed armed service branches have been in a constant state of exercise since the American flotilla arrived off the coast, and even though war is still not an absolute certainty, Venezuela is certainly preparing for the worse case scenario.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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