//The Wire//2300Z May 01, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MASS STABBING REPORTED AT SCHOOL IN TACOMA. FUEL CRISIS DEEPENS AS WAR IN PERSIAN GULF CONTINUES. PIRACY ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST. MAY DAY PROTESTS CAUSE DISRUPTIONS THROUGHOUT UNITED STATES.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Red Sea/HOA: This morning piracy activity continued, with one containership reporting a suspicious approach in the Gulf of Aden. No successful boarding was reported, however this is the first reported piracy attempt to take place in the Gulf of Aden since the war in the Persian Gulf started. -HomeFront- Washington: Yesterday afternoon a mass stabbing was reported at Foss High School in Tacoma. 6x individuals were wounded after one student conducted a stabbing attack at the school. Analyst Comment: Local authorities have been extremely tight-lipped regarding the cause of this attack. It's not clear as to if this is a standard gang-fight-turned-stabbing, or if this was a more deliberate terror attack. Washington D.C. - This afternoon the White House sent a letter to Congress stating that hostilities against Iran have "terminated" and therefore the obligations of the War Powers Resolution are not relevant to the current conflict. Analyst Comment: Regarding this Resolution, under most common interpretations of the law, a President has 60 days to either ask Congress to declare war, or request an extension of an overseas conflict. This 60-day deadline came into effect yesterday, and this afternoon the White House has taken the official position that due to the ceasefire, no Congressional action is required, even if the Strait of Hormuz is closed and no peace agreement is signed. This doesn't mean much, as hostilities can recommence at any moment, and this is mostly a way of the White House skirting Congress by arguing that if the war is paused for a period of time, the clock restarts. USA: Around the nation, various May Day protests were carried out in most major cities with varying levels of attendance. Most of the demonstrations were fairly low intensity, with the most kinetic events taking place at the New York Stock Exchange as activists attempted to rush the entrance and chain themselves to something. They did not succeed and most of the more active riots/demonstrations throughout the country resolved after a few sporadic scuffles. Analyst Comment: As of this report demonstrations are still ongoing, so more active incidents could develop as night falls. This afternoon, at least one activist has climbed the Frederick Douglass Memorial Bridge in Washington D.C. and set up a tent, so other similar encampment operations may be planned for the weekend in various high-profile locations around the country. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Around the world, the fuel crisis continues to compound, with costs rising substantially for some industries. Due to the rising costs of aviation fuel, Japan Airlines and Japan Transocean Air have instituted a flat-rate $350 surcharge on ALL tickets for flights from Japan to most of the the world. This measure was intended only for the month of June, but has been extended to go into effect today, for the month of May. So far, Europe has been hit the hardest by the fuel crisis, with prices and sheer availability itself being a challenge throughout the continent, which has also manifested itself even more unusually due to the lack of a centralized way to determine how much time is left before fuel runs out. Two days ago, one energy official was quoted in a Politico article, stating that by and large, Europe doesn't actually know how much time they have left, because there's no real way to know how much fuel is being stockpiled by the dozens of nations throughout the continent. Some places may run out within days, other nations and regions might never run out, it's impossible to know at the strategic level. Aviation fuel is the canary in the coal mine, because it's a much more precious resource to Europe, with most jet fuel being refined in the Middle East and imported to Europe, but other petroleum distillates will be impacted in wild and unpredictable ways for as long as the war lasts simply due to supply and demand. Demand remains the same, and a good chunk of the global fuel supply is simply cut off. While that supply is restricted, the clock is ticking, and demand must either decrease or alternative sources for petroleum must be found. Simple arithmetic indicates that neither is likely to happen anytime soon, so this might come to a head within the next few weeks, especially when it comes to commercial aviation. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 29, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: CONFLICT INTENSIFIES IN MALI. STABBING ATTACK STRIKES LONDON. UNITED ARAB EMIRATES DECIDE TO LEAVE OPEC.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: Yesterday the United Arab Emirates announced their intention to withdraw from OPEC, the organization of Oil Producing and Exporting Countries which are responsible for the coordination of oil production throughout the region. Analyst Comment: This is an important development that might be an early indicator of much more serious changes within the petroleum sector. Most of the major oil refineries in the UAE getting smoked by the Iranians was probably the driving factor behind this decision, or rather the last straw for the Emirates, who has been increasingly annoyed with OPEC's quota system over the years. However, since many other nations also saw catastrophic damage to their main source of national income, it is possible that a free-for-all situation might develop over time, whereby OPEC's stability is called into question. In short, the already volatile oil market is likely to stay insane for quite a while. Africa: The situation remains tense in Mali, as multiple different conflicts begin to come to a head. A few days ago, several separate attacks throughout the nation morphed into becoming a larger-scale uprising. Two groups, JNIM and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) coordinated to launch major attacks throughout the country, mostly focusing on the capital of Bamako, as well as major military bases in Kati and other major cities. During the attacks, Mali's Defense Minister was killed during an alleged Vehicle-Borne IED attack on his home. Due to the deteriorating security situation, most European nations and the U.S. have recommended either leaving the country as soon as possible or sheltering in place if it's too late to leave. United Kingdom: Two incidents have taken place in Golders Green over the past 24 hours. Yesterday a suspected arson incident was reported at a memorial wall set up for Iranians killed during the war. Separately, a stabbing attack was reported this morning in the same area, which involved a man approaching a bus stop and stabbing people on the street. The man was detained by a Shomrim foot patrol in the area, and a total of two people were wounded during this attack. Hours after the incident, Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia (HAYI) claimed credit for the attack. Separately, a large-scale police raid was conducted at Webb House in Crewe. This former orphanage had been turned into a migrant hotel, before eventually serving as the headquarters for a new religion, the Ahmadi Religion of Peace and Light. Over 500 police officers raided the compound this morning, in conjunction with investigations which indicated that this facility was serving as a large-scale human trafficking center, as well as clearing house for slaves, who were reportedly being bought and sold at the facility. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The source material for what's going on in Mali is nearly entirely Russian, as this is Russia's expeditionary fight to protect their interests in the region. However, quite significant events are underway in the Sahel, and the fighting has been widespread over the past few days. For context, after the French and Americans began leaving Mali (or reducing their roles) Russia and China stepped in to control the power vacuum. Nevertheless, the security situation deteriorated anyway, and now al-Qaeda is roaring back to power via splinter groups which have attracted tens of thousands of fighters. The Russian Africa Corp is saying that 12,000 fighters took part in the various attacks throughout the country, but this figure cannot be verified for obvious reasons. Either way, the situation is very hot throughout Mali, and the conflict is likely to intensify if one side gets the upper hand. The Russians also claim that this was a coordinated coup attempt that was intended to overthrow the Malian government, which they claim to have suppressed for now. Fighting still remains fairly constant throughout the nation, with the general security situation remaining just shy of an open civil war for the moment. As to why this matters to the United States, for the most part it doesn't really immediately affect the homeland. Tribal and insurgent conflicts in Africa are fairly regular and this conflict, while the largest in recent memory, is still a low-intensity conflict that will mostly affect Europe over the next few weeks. France, for example, gets nearly all of their Uranium for their nuclear reactors from the Sahel region, though they have been trying to shift to Botswana due to the security situation in the north of the continent. As France pivoted away, Russia stepped in to be the biggest power-player on the block, with Russia mostly being interested in Mali's vast wealth of gold. If the US wants to make it harder for Russia to extract resources in the region, worsening the war would be a good way to do it, however over time the expansion of a series of insurgencies in the Sahel is going to increase the risk to international trade routes in the long term. Even more seriously, this has the potential (if the belligerents so desire) to serve as yet another proxy frontline of the many conflicts that are currently underway around the world. We have wars underway in Europe and the Middle East, and now Africa is added to the list, with no end in sight for any of these conflicts. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//0120Z April 26, 2026// //PRIORITY// //BLUF: SHOOTING REPORTED AT WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT'S DINNER. ONE SHOOTER REPORTEDLY NEUTRALIZED BY SECRET SERVICE.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - This evening shots were fired at the Washington Hilton Hotel, during the annual White House Correspondent's Dinner. Initial reports by law enforcement on scene indicated one shooter was neutralized by Secret Service agents after attempting to gain entry to the facility through the hotel lobby. President Trump and other high ranking attendees have been evacuated from the facility in accordance with protocol. The hotel remains on lockdown while a sweep of the facility is being carried out. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: As this incident is currently developing, the dynamic nature of the incident results in nothing being confirmed at the moment. The only detail that is confirmed are the many gunshots that were audible on the cameras that were covering the event. No word yet on the shooter's identity. More details to follow as the situation develops. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 24, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: BUILDUP OF AMERICAN FORCES IN MIDDLE EAST REACHES RECORD LEVELS. KUWAITI BORDER CHECKPOINTS HIT BY FPV DRONES. ARREST MADE REGARDING MOLOTOV ATTACK IN LOUISIANA.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: Overnight Kuwaiti forces reported two FPV drone strikes on border crossing checkpoints with Iraq. No casualties were reported as a result of the attack. Analyst Comment: The statement provided by the Kuwaiti Army did not specifically disclose which border crossings were targeted, however there are only two crossing points in total: one main crossing on the northern border, and a smaller outpost on the western border. The interesting detail in the notice is the disclosure that these attacks were conducted by fiber-optically-guided FPV drones, and both of these sites were too far away from each other for these attacks to have been conducted by the same team. -HomeFront- Louisiana: This morning one individual was arrested following the firebombing of a Tesla Service Center two weeks ago. John Michael Hinkhouse was arrested for throwing a Molotov device at the entrance to the facility, which resulted in fire damaging the front of the building. Hinkhouse was located after security cameras tracked him back to his residence after the attack. Washington D.C. - Two incidents involving city busses have taken place over the past 24 hours. Yesterday, a bus caught fire in the 9th Street Tunnel, resulting in the tunnel being shut down for many hours. The cause of the fire remains unknown. This morning, two city busses collided with each other head-on in the Pentagon's south parking lot, resulting in a total of 23x people being injured. Analyst Comment: Currently there are no indications that either incident was nefarious in any way, however it's worth paying attention to during periods of heightened terrorism risk, just in case other incidents pop up later. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Concerning strategic movement in the Middle East, American cargo flights continue unabated, along with the forward deployment of even more fighter aircraft. Last night another squadron of F/A-18's arrived at Al Dhafra Airbase in the UAE, and the USS *GEORGE H.W. BUSH* (CVN 77) arrived in the Indian Ocean following her long journey around Africa. Another Expeditionary Sea Base (ESB), the USS *MIGUEL KIETH* (ESB 5) is also projected to be approaching the operational area, after having transited the Strait of Malacca and should be arriving on station soon (though it is not clear as to if she is expected to take part in this operation). This brings a total of 3x aircraft carriers, 2x Expeditionary Sea Bases, and 1x amphibious assault ship (a total of 6 "flat tops") for whatever operations are planned. Of note, CENTCOM has provided press materials that imply that the *BUSH* is not replacing the *LINCOLN* or the damaged *FORD* but will serve independently as a third strike group throughout the region. This buildup has become even more substantial than the 4+ months of lead-up to this war breaking out, with even more naval assets being transferred from the Pacific to supplement the forces already in theater. As a reminder, at least one Brigade Combat Team (BCT) from the 82nd Airborne is still in the region. Considering all of these developments, the grand question remains: Does the US plan to reignite the war? This remains an unknown, and it's impossible to know what secret decisions have been made at the upper echelons of government. What is certain, is that a large-scale rearmament and resupply operation has been ongoing since the ceasefire went into effect, and enough resources are on station to conduct large scale operations if that is the chosen course of action. Not only is the war not over, but there are now vastly more resources in theater right now, than at the start of the conflict. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 23, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: USA INTERCEPTS IRANIAN TANKER IN INDIAN OCEAN. CEASEFIRE IN LEBANON EXTENDED. US SECRETARY OF THE NAVY DEPARTS POSITION.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Lebanon: This afternoon President Trump stated that the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel will be extended for another three weeks, while the diplomatic efforts with the Iranians continue. Persian Gulf: Following the Iranian targeting/boarding operations yesterday, nobody has attempted to transit the Strait of Hormuz. American efforts to conduct resupply and rearming operations throughout the region continue, as the Strait remains closed and no timeline for peace talks being conveyed by either side. Analyst Comment: Major shipping giants are planning for the Strait to be closed for some time. Maersk, the Danish shipping giant, stated that the Strait remains "firmly closed" due to the war. Which, although fairly obvious at this point, has been a very important realization for a major shipping company to acknowledge as the global economy begins settling in for the long haul. Indian Ocean: Overnight the Pentagon announced the maritime interdiction of the M/T *MAJESTIC X* off the coast of Sri Lanka, continuing the interception of Iranian-linked vessels exporting oil during the ceasefire. This vessel had been on the sanctions list for a many years, and was classified as a stateless vessel as she was using a falsified registration. -HomeFront- Louisiana: This afternoon a shooting was reported at the Mall of Louisiana in Baton Rouge. Local authorities state that the initial investigation indicates this was a case of mutual combat between two groups, which engaged in a small arms skirmish in the food court after an argument. A total of 10x people were wounded during the attack, and as of this report a total of 3x shooters remain at large following the engagement. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In Washington, last night Secretary of the Navy John Phelan departed his position, effective immediately. His deputy, Hung Cao, has stepped in to the role while a replacement is in the works. The reason for his departure has not been confirmed by official sources yet, and officially it is not clear as to if he resigned or was fired. Media speculation and "off the record" conversations among the press pool at the Pentagon has largely theorized that he was fired due to personality clashes with SECWAR Hegseth. Whatever the true reason for this departure, the head of the Navy leaving his position with no turnover or transition process at a time when the US Navy is engaged in a kinetic war, is not a sign indicative of stability at the upper echelons of command. Especially considering the military head of the Army, Gen. George, was also fired from his job as Army Chief of Staff and forced to retire two weeks ago. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 22, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MULTIPLE SHIPS FIRED UPON AND SEIZED BY IRAN AFTER ATTEMPTING TO TRANSIT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. GEORGIA MURDER SUSPECT FOUND DECEASED IN HIS CELL. CONGRESSWOMAN IN FLORIDA RESIGNS BEFORE EXPULSION VOTE.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: Overnight several containerships attempted to sneak through the Strait of Hormuz. Two vessels, the M/V *MSC-FRANCESCA* and the M/V *EPAMINONDAS* were fired upon by Iranian gunboats before being boarded and seized. Analyst Comment: A third vessel, the M/V *EUPHORIA* also attempted to run the gauntlet during the fray, and as of this morning appears to have actually made it through without being damaged and she is continuing to transit south. -HomeFront- Georgia: The suspect in the recent murder spree that took place in DeKalb County has been found dead in his cell in Atlanta. Olaolukitan Adon Abel was discovered unresponsive in his cell last night, before being pronounced dead shortly thereafter. No cause of death has been provided. Analyst Comment: Abel was charged with multiple counts of murder, in addition to crimes so graphic they cannot be described in mixed company, which took place during his crime spree that spread throughout the Atlanta suburbs last week. Florida: This morning, Representative Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick resigned, approximately 20 minutes before a vote was scheduled to be held by the House Ethics Committee regarding whether or not to recommend expelling her from Congress. Analyst Comment: McCormick is currently facing federal charges after engaging in various corruption scandals. She first gained notoriety after using stolen federal disaster funds to purchase a $109,000 ring, which she was observed wearing in her official Congressional photo. Last Christmas, she had the ring photoshopped out of the image, as a federal grand jury had indicted her on charges of stealing over $5 million of FEMA disaster funding. The grand jury agreed that this took the form of awarding COVID relief funds to her family business since 2021, which overbilled the American people for services that were never provided. Despite facing a total of 15x federal felony counts, she was still serving in Congress up until this morning. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Shortly before the ceasefire between Iran and the United States was set to expire last night, President Trump posted a statement on Truth Social indicating that the ceasefire will be extended indefinitely while waiting for the Iranians to come up with a different proposal. Throughout the region, American military cargo flights continue to take place at an increased rate. Resources are pouring into various airfields throughout the Middle East, almost at the rate observed during the rapid buildup that took place before the war. On the Iranian side, similar preparations are being made. Fresh satellite imagery from today confirms beyond all doubt that the IRCG-N retains some level of fastboat capability, as one swarm of at least 34x fastboats was observed returning to base in the image. This is the first satellite image available throughout the region for the past few days, and the wake of the fastboat swarm as captured by the Sentinel 2 satellite indicates that this IRCG-N boat swarm was returning from the minefield that was laid earlier. Though it is impossible to confirm the exact activity that was being conducted, from a planning and insurance-risk perspective, it is important to note that most of Iran's minelaying capacity is fulfilled by these exact vessels, which usually carry one or two mines each. As a result it is likely that substantial minelaying operations have been conducted over the past few days. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 20, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: US NAVY BEGINS TARGETING MERCHANT TRAFFIC IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ. VIOLENT CRIME CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE UNITED STATES AND MEXICO. PROTESTS CONTINUE IN UNITED KINGDOM.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: The situation deteriorated over the weekend, after President Trump stated that the American blockade would stay in place even after the Iranians removed theirs. In response to this, Iran closed the Strait again, and kinetically targeted two Indian vessels that were in the Strait, attempting to cross it. Yesterday, the United States kinetically struck an Iranian merchant vessel which was attempting to run the American blockade. The M/V *TOUSKA* was fired upon by the USS Spruance (DDG-111), which engaged the vessel with their deck gun, targeting the engine room. After the shelling, U.S. Marines from the 31st MEU boarded and seized control of the ship. United Kingdom: Protests in Epsom continue to grow despite developments in the case. Epsom police have stated they "have not found any evidence of the offence as reported but the investigation is ongoing". Analyst Comment: Some claims are being made that the crime never took place, or otherwise did not occur as initially described. Nevertheless, this doesn't seem to matter much as most of the population does not believe the authorities' story, and there has not been a clear conveying of the series of events. As a result, protests have continued throughout the area over the past few days, mostly focusing on police accountability and transparency on the crimes that are committed. Mexico: This afternoon a shooting was reported at Teotihuacán, as a man climbed one of the pyramids and began shooting at crowds of tourists. As of this report, the number of causalities has varied, with local media reporting a total of a dozen people wounded by the shooter or otherwise injured during the incident. At least one Canadian tourist was killed by the shooter, who eventually took his own life, ending the incident. -HomeFront- Louisiana: Over the weekend a mass shooting was reported after a domestic disturbance resulted in a man murdering his entire family. Local authorities state that Shamar Elkins targeted his ex-girlfriend at their residence on Harrison Street following a domestic argument. After killing her, he drove W 79th Street, where he murdered his ex's sister, and eight children, seven of which were his own. After the mass-murder, Elkins fled the scene on foot, before carjacking a vehicle and fleeing to the north. A high-speed chase ensued and the suspect eventually crashed in a residential neighborhood in Bossier City. At this location the suspect was shot by police, ending the incident. North Carolina: This morning a shooting was reported in Leinbach Park, near Jefferson Middle School in Winston-Salem. Multiple individuals were wounded during the engagement, which resulted from a planned fight which devolved into a small arms skirmish. 2x fatalities have been reported, along with several others wounded. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Statements made by President Trump over the weekend indicate that the Gulf War will probably resume once the ceasefire concludes on Wednesday evening. Major American military logistical flights have continued to intensify into the Middle East over the past few days, and as it stands the United States has not exactly been amenable to another extension of the ceasefire.. Due to the recent developments in the Strait, merchant traffic is not going to resume normalcy anytime soon, with not one, but two navies now targeting merchant shipping for running their respective blockades. The brief rhetoric a few days ago indicating the Strait opening up was only a fleeting moment, and now that peace is looking less likely, the long-term effects are going to start stacking up. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), roughly 20% of the global petroleum supply is offline, and has been unavailable since this war began. 40% of the world's petrochemical supply is similarly impacted for the same reasons. The IEA states that the continent of Europe has about 5 weeks of aviation fuel left (at current consumption rates) because roughly 75% of all of the jet fuel in Europe comes from regions of the Middle East that are now cut off. Regardless of rhetoric on social media intended to calm markets, sooner or later the lack of a physical product being delivered out of the region is going to have real-world impacts that are impossible to ignore. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 17, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: IRANIANS CONDITIONALLY OPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, SURGE OF SHIPS ATTEMPT TO DEPART THE PERSIAN GULF. CRIME WAVE STRIKES WASHINGTON DC. TERROR ATTACK SCARE STRIKES LONDON.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: Significant diplomatic events have transpired throughout the day. In Lebanon, the Israelis have allegedly agreed to a ceasefire (and possibly a halt to the forward movement of their ground invasion). This is contingent on events in Iran, which allegedly announced the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz while the ceasefire is in effect. This re-opening is conditional, with the terms being no military vessels will be allowed, ships must coordinate with the Iranians, use the new Larak Island route instead of the traditional corridor, and ship's cargo must not be "linked to belligerent states". Analyst Comment: If these are truthfully the terms that will be enforced, this is no change to the preexisting situation, as all of these terms have already been in place. Statements by President Trump differ somewhat from what the Iranians have stated publicly, with the United States announcing that the Strait is fully open, free and clear....only on the Iranian side. Per the White House and CENTCOM, the American blockade will continue. United Kingdom: This morning a significant police presence was observed in Kensington Gardens in conjunction with an ongoing investigation of a security incident. Overnight, a video was posted online by Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia (HAYI) in which this group claimed to have carried out a drone attack on the Israeli embassy. In the video, the assailants claimed to have infiltrated the park, and launched drones carrying radioactive material toward the embassy. Police state that some "discarded items" were recovered from the park, but authorities have not disclosed if anything harmful was found. Analyst Comment: Right now this looks to be a hoax based on statements made by authorities, who have stated that no attack was actually conducted. A cheap drone and a Tyvek suit is a very low-cost way to tie up a lot of resources and waste a lot of time, so these types of scares and incidents are extremely common during periods of heightened concern for terrorism. This group was also completely unheard of until after the war in Iran began, and it's allegedly the same group responsible for the ambulance arson attack in Golder's Green a few weeks ago. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Due to an increase of crime throughout the city, Mayor Bowser has recommenced juvenile curfew procedures within certain districts of the city. Last night a shooting was reported in a traditionally high-crime area near the Navy Yard, which resulted in a brief manhunt for the suspect (who remains at large). -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Though the Iranians have allegedly opened up their side of the Strait of Hormuz more than it has over the past few weeks, the situation in the Middle East remains complicated. This afternoon, a substantial number of vessels were observed attempting to make a break for it while they still can, with several cargo ships attempting to transit the Strait. However, several of these ships were turned around by the Iranians, so it will probably take overnight before we can see how this all works out. As things stand right now, the rhetoric of all parties is not exactly matching the ground-truth of what is going on in the Strait, so we have to make an educated guess as to what is happening with regards to global trade. Right now, it looks like the US traded a ceasefire in Lebanon for opening the Strait for third-party nations to escape the Persian Gulf. Ships that are stuck in the Gulf can't make money elsewhere, and this agreement might be a more temporary "hostage release" situation to get these ships out of the region. The US will still enforce a blockade to Iranian ports, and the Iranians will prevent the US from sending warships into the Gulf. The minefield in the main shipping channel is still in place, and everything else remains the same as before. However, keeping a wider perspective at a very tense time might also be beneficial. It is also plausible that the American blockade is not entirely a serious endeavor, but rather an indication that we're not out of the woods just yet. Right now, via the implementation of the blockade, the US Navy is continuing to stage a lot of ships much closer to Iran than they have been observed so far during this war. Overnight, the USS *JOHN L. CANLEY* was observed transiting the Singapore Strait, heading west toward Iran. This is an Expeditionary Sea Base, a relatively newer class of ships who's sole purpose is to serve as a seaborne platform for Special Operations. Over the past two months, very interesting resources and platforms have been staging at Diego Garcia as well, with a notable increase in aircraft being staged at this base since the ceasefire went into effect. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 13, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MAJOR ESCALATIONS REPORTED IN MIDDLE EAST AFTER PEACE TALKS FAIL. AMERICAN NAVAL BLOCKADE ANNOUNCED IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. TERRORIST ATTACK REPORTED IN ALGERIA DURING POPE'S VISIT.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: Over the weekend, negotiations between the United States and Iran failed to produce any sort of agreement. Both parties have returned to their respective countries, and the potential for future negotiations remains unclear. Shortly after negotiations concluded, President Trump announced the implementation of a naval blockade of the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. The post specifically stated that the U.S. Navy will blockade "any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz". A few hours later, CENTCOM posted an article on the implementation of this policy, stating that "The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman". Lebanon: The war continues as Israeli forces continue their advance to the Litani River. Clearance operations have been on going in the south, with most villages within a few miles of the traditional border between Lebanon and Israel having been either bombed or bulldozed over the past few years with the goal of establishing a buffer zone. Hungary: Yesterday, the results of the general election resulted in sitting Prime Minister Viktor Orban being replaced by Peter Magyar after holding power for 16 years. Algeria: This morning two IED attacks took place in Blida, which took the form of two assailants wearing explosive belts attempting to target a crowd near the National Police Headquarters. Analyst Comment: These attacks coincided with Pope Leo XIV's visit to Algiers. Consequently, local media is speculating that these attackers were on their way to target the Pope, and got discovered, prompting their detonation. However, considering that the attackers were on foot at the time (and Blida is a long way from Algiers, where the Pope was located), a more likely theory is that this attack was targeting the police station. This theory is supported by the rather graphic video of at least one of the attacks. These types of attacks are extremely common throughout the third-world, as low-level insurgent groups sometimes prefer to conduct attacks during a high-profile visit, so as to amplify the message of their cause. In this case however, nobody survived to convey what group actually conducted the attack, so pending a group claiming credit, the overall motive for this terror attack remains unknown. Eastern Pacific: Overnight strikes on narco-vessels continued throughout the SOUTHCOM area of responsibility, with multiple airstrikes being reported in the general vicinity of the Caribbean. Analyst Comment: While attention has been diverted to the Middle East, Operation Southern Spear has been continuing, with strikes on fastboats being reported regularly this entire time. Most of the more recent strikes have been conducted not in the Caribbean specifically, but in undisclosed regions of the Pacific Ocean (probably off the coast of Ecuador, where joint American operations have been increasing over the past few weeks). -HomeFront- New York: A mass stabbing attack was reported at the Grand Central Terminal subway station on Saturday, after an assailant began attacking a crowd of people on the platform. Police officers on the platform shot and killed the assailant immediately after the attack began. Concerning casualties, 3x elderly victims were wounded during the attack and all are expected to survive. The assailant has been identified as Anthony Griffin, and a family friend stated that Griffin was known to have mental health issues and that he was known to carry a machete. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Blockading ships from only Iranian ports is quite different from the White House's statements of "any and all ships", and as a result, the implementation of the blockade in the Middle East is extremely significant. If the U.S. does intend to halt "all" traffic through the Strait, half of the planet will be in a bind. If the U.S. is only targeting Iranian ships (or ships exporting cargo from Iranian ports), this would make sense except for the U.S. lifting sanctions on the Iranian oil market a few weeks ago. As of today, no one has really addressed this prior lifting of sanctions, and it is not clear as to which policy supersedes the other. At this juncture, there is no word on how this is going to work out, because on the one hand the U.S. has told Iran that they can export oil to the global market, but at the same time they are being told that their ships will be interdicted, and sunk if necessary. Clarifications may come in due time (or they might not), but at the moment the announcement of a naval blockade of any kind probably won't do very much to alleviate concerns among maritime insurance companies. Companies were already concerned about the Iranian blockade, but now merchant shippers have to be concerned about the U.S. Navy interdicting them as well, especially since there are differences in the terms laid out by President Trump and CENTCOM regarding what ships are being allowed through. Bottom line, the war is not over, and the concerns that have been in place since the start of the war, still remain in place. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out! This week we have a very tepid "pause" to the fight in the Middle East, while all sides rearm and resupply as fast as possible just in case peace is not on the menu. Meanwhile, crime season is well under way in the United States, with many serious and violent incidents taking place over the past week. https://youtu.be/xp97P852sEE