//The Wire//1300Z September 28, 2026// //PRIORITY// //BLUF: INCIDENT REPORTED AT RAF FAIRFORD AS MULTIPLE MEN ARRESTED IN MULTIPLE VEHICLES NEAR THE AIRBASE PERIMETER.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- United Kingdom: Yesterday a possible terror attack was foiled at Fairford Airbase, after a group of men were discovered acting suspiciously in the vicinity of the base. Local authorities state that a local farmer visually observed three vans parked in the roadway just outside the base. When the farmer approached the vehicles blocking the road, a group of masked men fled from the scene. After the alarm was raised, authorities responded and a total of five men were detained after being found hiding in the woods near the van site. A search of their vans revealed large containers of hazardous material, which prompted a mass evacuation of the local area. A total of 85x homes were evacuated for several hours while EOD personnel examined the contents of the vans, with residents being allowed to return to their homes last night. All five suspects have been detained, and government officials have declined to officially attribute motive. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: As this is a developing situation, many of the details as presented to the public either are not clear, or do not make much sense in terms of what attack might have been planned. Right now, the finger is being pointed at Iran for this incident for obvious reasons, however before attribution can be laid on any group or nation, the basic facts of the case must be ironed out. Government officials and media groups are insinuating that this was a Vehicle Borne IED (VBIED) attack that was foiled before it could materialize. Other claims are being made suggesting that this incident is not terrorism...but rather a group of thieves who were trying to steal diesel from the farm that they were discovered at. Examining the Most Deadly theory first, if it was a VBIED attack, it would be one of the most unorthodox VBIED attacks in history, for many different reasons. First of all, multiple people being located in each vehicle is odd; these types of attacks almost never result in multiple attackers being located in the same vehicle...it's almost always just one person inside the VBIED. If multiple people are to take part in an attack, it would have made more sense for the additional personnel to travel to the site in separate vehicles, to conduct a more complex attack (such as the infamous Bataclan attack back in 2015). In this case however, local authorities have not stated whether or not any small arms were found inside the vehicles, and no ideological material (such as flags, banners, or other paraphernalia) was found either. Additionally, the local farmer who claims to have been the original source for visually observing these individuals stated that she initially became suspicious after these men were seen wearing hoods and masks. If this observation is true (and it probably is), this is another detail that does not make sense. VBIED attacks are usually a one-way trip, and therefore the attackers aren't normally concerned with keeping their identity a secret. On the contrary, they usually want to be known publicly as martyrs, so wearing masks goes against nearly all other similar attacks. Furthermore, the attackers were spotted by the farmer blocking the roadway, and fled from the scene on foot after the farmer drove up on them. This is once again another clue that something is amiss. Normally, once a terrorist begins moving into the final stages of their attack and starts maneuvering to the attack site, a series of events is in place that would be difficult to stop. Once they've committed to the attack, violence from authorities is usually the only thing that can stop an attack at that point. Following the narrative as presented, five very physically fit Military Aged Males spent months planning an attack, had obtained three vehicles packed with explosives, had arrived at the attack site, and were preparing the attack...but were shooed away by an unarmed British lady right as they were about to detonate. This framing makes absolutely zero sense unless the story as presented is missing large and very critical details. Another discrepancy is the exact location of where the vehicles were discovered blocking the road. The farmer who made the discovery found these men and their vehicles at a junction on Horcott Road, a quiet English lane just to the east of the base itself. This road is nowhere near a main entrance to the facility. Speculating a bit (and following the VBIED theory), it is possible that the attackers intended to attack the perimeter fence itself, and not a main gate. Right at the junction where the vehicles were parked is a farm which features a small path that leads somewhat close to the perimeter fence itself. However, based on the satellite imagery (which the attackers surely would have had) this is a rather poor attack site. There is no High-Speed Avenue of Approach, and even if they detonated their cargo right where they were sitting, it's not very likely that any military aircraft at the base would have been damaged (although a LOT of citizens would have been killed). There are several other points where the attackers could have breached the perimeter, including one site that is directly on a main road, easily accessible, and offered absolutely zero resistance to a vehicle ramming through the flimsy fence to drive directly onto the runway itself. If the attackers were dedicated enough to fill three vans with explosives in an attempt to carry out one of the most substantial IED attacks in British history...they would have had to drive past one of the most devastatingly vulnerable parts of the base, to pick a far less effective target. Now that the jig is up and base security is heightened, there is no risk to pointing out this glaring vulnerability, because base security have parked heavy vehicles near all of the gates that are easy to ram through. This indicates that the vulnerabilities along the base perimeter were genuine...and the alleged terrorists did not choose to exploit them for some reason. Finally, the vehicles themselves provide a major clue which adds helpful context that must be considered in the broader context of what might have happened. At least one of the vans was marked with the logo of "Fuel 2You" a fuel delivery company, which provides fueling services to machinery and industrial sites, for customers who need small fuel deliveries. However, the logo is NOT the same as the company...they misspelled the name. The vans are marked with "Fuel 2YOU", but the actual company is stylized as "FUEL2U" with the letter "U". The logo is also green in the United Kingdom; the red logo that the suspects copied is from an American company. This small detail alone is the strongest evidence of malign action. Camouflage is an act that, when discovered, betrays intent to conceal something. And in this case, it's fantastic camouflage, because if a terrorist were to be pulled over with barrels full of flammable liquid, there is no better camouflage than to take on the identity of a company that is known for operating mobile gas stations. The problem is that the suspects googled "Fuel 2 You" and got the logo from the American company, instead of the British company that is called "Fuel2U". The actual company released a statement confirming that their company likeness was used by the suspects without their permission, and that these vehicles had no affiliation with their company whatsoever. As a result of this final detail, the suspects were almost certainly up to no good, but exactly what they were planning is up for debate and will have to be determined later on. The use of camouflage on their vans is a clever trick that would support either the VBIED theory or the diesel theft theory, but adding up all of the details that are known, every factor lines up more with the diesel theft theory than the VBIED theory. Speculating on the diesel theft theory, everything so far makes sense. A band of thieves masquerading as a fuel delivery service company, and using that as cover to steal fuel would be a rather slick criminal operation (that is, if they weren't dumb enough to use the wrong logo). Since the suspects were captured alive, it is certain that some information will be obtained, but for now a lot of guesswork is required both to determine what actually was being planned, and also what future threats might be still on the horizon. The discrepancies in the other details of the case indicate that this case is not as cut-and-dry as depicted in the media...there is very clearly something that the authorities are not telling the public. This does not necessarily indicate much on it's own; there is certainly enough wiggle room in the official story for everything to technically be true. Maybe the attackers got lost, or had a breakdown, or were not that great at planning. Maybe they weren't trying to conduct an attack at the time of their discovery, and were instead trying to stage IEDs for later on. On the other hand, it's also possible that these individuals were not terrorists, but rather thieves attempting to steal fuel from the farm at which they were caught. As it stands, the possibilities vary widely, and until more details are known we just don't know. More broadly, this incident is a high profile matter that will have several follow-on effects even if it was just diesel theft. First and foremost, the American B-1B bombers will probably be moved around the base, since news helicopters revealed where they are parked. Fairford is not the only base where American bombers are located, and these assets are rotated around fairly regularly anyway. Random Antiterrorism Measures (RAM) are certain to increase at all British bases where American forces are staged, with this incident highlighting the security vulnerabilities at major military installations throughout Europe. If pro-Palestine activists can break into a military airbase and damage aircraft with paint (as they did last summer at RAF Brize Norton), then legitimate and serious terrorists certainly can do worse. This latest incident is too close for comfort, and if this was an attack that was indeed imminent (before it was stopped), this would be a miracle that highlights the critical importance of a prepared and observant citizenry. Until we know more details, from a planning perspective it would be wise to treat this as a very serious threat that could have killed a lot of people. Regardless of who was behind it (and for whatever reason) if this was an attack and if it were to be carried out as claimed by initial reports, many lives would have been lost, nearly all of which would have been civilian. And the threat might not be over just yet. The local farmer who made the initial discovery has adamantly assured that she saw more than just the five men who were detained. If this is true and if there are other suspects on the loose, this could present a more persistent threat to the local area until they are found. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

This week's Intel Update is out! It would seem that a form of calm before the storm has settled in around the Middle East, with the daily strikes in the Gulf being overshadowed by the efforts being undertaken to prepare for the next phase of the war. Meanwhile, the energy crisis continues to deteriorate, while the election season looms. Link: https://youtu.be/csn_2SdIMWM

//The Wire//2300Z September 25, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: RUSSIA AND UKRAINE INCREASE MUTUAL TARGETING EFFORTS OVERNIGHT. HOUTHIS ATTEMPT TO STRIKE SAUDI TARGETS, ALL MISSILES INTERCEPTED. AMERICAN ASPIRATIONS FOR INTERVENTION IN CUBA CONTINUE TO MOUNT.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Baltic Sea: Tensions are high as a series of escalations have remained constant between NATO and Russia. Overnight a flight of Russian Tu-134 transport aircraft being escorted by fighters was observed patrolling over the Gulf of Finland, prompting Finland and Sweden to scramble fighters to intercept and identify the Russian aircraft. Analyst Comment: This was the first time a joint identification mission was carried out between Finland and Sweden, but more generally this is a routine mission set and not really anything out of the ordinary. However, as the tensions around the continent remain high and European leaders have issued serious statements over the past few days urging war, these standard identification missions are usually the tip of the spear in terms of the potential for sharp escalations to occur. Fighter aircraft intercepting each other tends to be an opportunity for nations to keep up more active "foreign relations", and an increase in flights over international waters tends to be a barometer for determining how serious nations are with regard to their rhetoric. As it stands, a lot of bluster is going around between NATO and Russia, which will probably get more intense over the next few weeks. Russia: Overnight, Ukraine increased attacks on Russian infrastructure in retaliation for last night's strikes in Kiev. Ukrainian drones targeted petroleum refineries in Perm and Rostov. A chemical plant was also struck in Voronezh, and a factory was hit in Ulyanovsk. In response, Russia continued strikes in and around Kiev, most notably targeting a McDonald's warehouse. Analyst Comment: The strikes conducted by Ukraine were the most significant reported in a few weeks, all of which were conducted hundreds of miles from the front lines. The continual Ukrainian strikes on Russian petroleum infrastructure despite President Trump's order to cease these attacks is quite interesting, and highlights the frustrations within the United States regarding the administration of the war. At the moment, many are pointing the finger at Zelensky for his open defiance of the United States regarding strikes on Russian refineries, but reading between the lines in a larger sense, these strikes are also probably not explicitly and solely Zelensky's decision. Looking within, if the US genuinely wants to stop diesel refineries from getting hit (even Russian ones) a quick phone call to Langley is probably more effective in stopping Ukrainian targeting than anything else. China: Yesterday the National Development and Reform Commission announced an increase in the price of gasoline and diesel, raising the national price cap for the second time in two weeks, bringing fuel prices to levels roughly 24-26% higher than pre-war levels. Middle East: Overnight Houthi forces launched a total of 6x ballistic missiles toward various targets in Saudi Arabia. Saudi forces intercepted all missiles, with no impacts being reported on the ground. Analyst Comment: Thankfully for the Saudis, this time missile defenses were effective at neutralizing the threat. However, this latest attack has strained the newly-signed Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, which is a mutual defense pact between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey. Both Pakistan and Turkey are in a tough spot, because this new agreement is essentially the Arab version of NATO's Article 5 in that an attack on one, is treated as an attack on all. Neither Turkey nor Pakistan want to become involved in the Houthi crisis, and as a result have treated the Houthi problem as a "preexisting condition" which is not covered by their new defense policy. Either way, it's semantics at the end of the day, and the biggest threat to Saudi Arabia at present, is the Houthis. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Over the past few days, mainstream media reporting has claimed to have leaked emails describing a potential American ground invasion of Cuba. While this sounds fantastical at face value (which is not helped by the lack of any corroborating sources being publicly available), this has been on the table for some time. Right now, the origin for these claims is a single CBS news report, which references internal Army communications concerning this potential campaign. Examining the raw data, the current situation in the region does not indicate an imminent invasion or other military campaign. There have been no increases in observable aircraft staging in Florida, nor have there been any irregular troop movements to the region. The US Navy is currently not staging forces for an expected increase in operations within SOUTHCOM, and all naval deployments so far seem to be routine. There has been an observable increase in Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) flights around Cuba for a few months, but nothing that indicates anything serious. In terms of the likelihood of American intervention in Cuba, the likelihood must be considered in the context of the past few months of rhetoric. President Trump quite literally stated back in March that "Cuba's going to be next", and various statements over the past few months have rather strongly depicted American aspirations on the island. Whether or not the US intends to actually follow through on the desires to seize the island (or do something else) is anybody's guess, but it's not likely to happen anytime soon in any case. For the moment however, posturing and pressure are likely to continue, and probably will escalate over the next few weeks. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z September 24, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: STABBING REPORTED AT POLISH MONASTERY. INFRASTRUCTURE ATTACKS CONTINUE IN EUROPE. MAJOR MISSILE STRIKES REPORTED IN KIEV. ENERGY CRISIS CONTINUES AS GAS AND DIESEL PRICES CONTINUE TO RISE.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Ukraine: Major missile strikes were reported in Kiev overnight. Several Iskander missiles struck targets around the city, targeting factories and various production facilities. Additionally, at least four different Zircon hypersonic missile strikes were reported, in addition to the short range ballistic missiles. Poland: Overnight, a sabotage attack was reported at a Starlink communications hub south of Warsaw. Unidentified assailants set a generator on fire, along with a power distribution hub on site. This site is owned and operated by Exatel (the state-owned telecoms company) and functioned as a ground control station for the Polish military's use of Starlink. This attack took place at roughly the same time as the heavy missile strikes in Ukraine and Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski stated that the attack is being treated as an act of sabotage. Also in Poland a stabbing attack was reported this morning at a Benedictine Abbey in the town of Jaroslaw. One assailant attacked two priests on the grounds of the monastery, after stealing a knife from the kitchen. During the fray, a total of three clergy and two laypeople were wounded. One of the Sisters of the abbey stated that Father Stanisław was killed during the attack, and Father Marek remains in critical condition. The assailant was detained at the scene and was not identified by name. However local authorities state that the attacker is a Ukrainian national. Europe: Following the intense targeting campaign between Russia and Ukraine overnight several runaway drones were reported, striking third party nations around the region. This morning a drone struck a wooded area near the border in Romania, and another drone impacted a farmers field in Moldova. Middle East: Yesterday the Pentagon disclosed the death of another soldier related to the current war with Iran. Major Bianca Wilkerson died after suffering a non-combat related medical incident while onboard an aircraft bound for Saudi Arabia. Analyst Comment: It is important to note the process for categorizing wartime casualties has changed somewhat since the start of the war. Operation EPIC FURY officially ended on May 5th. Ever since that date, all casualties have been logged under the general banner of "Overseas Operations", which includes US military casualty figures from all around the world, which are not cataloged under a different operation. As a result, it's challenging to determine exactly how casualties (both deaths and the wounded) are being counted. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Within the United States, the energy situation continues to deteriorate. The national average for gasoline remains around $4.50/gal and diesel has steadily risen to around $6.52/gal. Early this morning the Houthi's announced that they had hit more Saudi infrastructure, which has not yet been confirmed by satellite imagery. Regardless, the report alone was enough to cause crude futures to rise further, back up to around $108/bbl. The White House has not yet announced a decision regarding a potential export ban on diesel, though at the moment most experts (and even Trump himself) are hesitant to implement any export ban, because it might cause more problems than it solves. Either way, a decision will have to be made soon, as diesel prices continue to slowly rise right at peak harvest season and fuel prices for farmers are going to be reflected in the price of food and goods very soon. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z September 23, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: UNITED NATIONS GENERAL ASSEMBLY CONTINUES IN NEW YORK. AMERICAN SANCTIONS ON IRANIAN AIRLINES COME INTO EFFECT. COMMERCIAL VESSEL STRUCK IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ. RUSSIAN HELICOPTER BRIEFLY CROSSES POLISH BORDER, ESCALATING GROWING CONCERNS OF AIRSPACE INCURSIONS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- United Kingdom: Immigration issues continue to develop, as channel boat crossings have escalated over the past few days. At least two inflatable boats made landfall in Kent overnight, prompting concerns as to why they were not intercepted and turned around before reaching land. The recent migration surge has resulted in widespread protests at port facilities throughout the country, which have also become more tense as authorities provide security for migration operations. Middle East: This morning a commercial vessel was struck in the Strait of Hormuz, which resulted in a major fire. The crew of the M/V *CAPE DAO* abandoned ship, after one crew member was killed and another wounded during the strike. Poland: Overnight one border incursion was reported near Braniewo, as a Russian helicopter from Kaliningrad flew south over the border. The helicopter flew about 300 meters into Polish airspace before returning to Kaliningrad less than a minute later. Poland scrambled fighters to intercept the aircraft, and ground forces were placed on alert in the border region. Analyst Comment: This was probably a classic probing incident. Russia has very obviously been carrying out reconnaissance to probe air defenses and test NATO's response, and this case was probably intended to spin up Polish responses, which they dutifully did. Russia probably doesn't need to do this, but these types of light border incursions have been common over the past few decades. This incident is not exactly earth-shattering, but it's also not unremarkable either, and mostly serves as yet another example of how the Cold War era escalations remain constant. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - As of this morning, American sanctions took effect to sanction nations which allow Iranian commercial aviation to operate within their country. These sanctions target nations that allow Iranian aircraft to land and refuel, with the United States threatening to cut off those nations from the US banking system. Analyst Comment: In response to the United States announcing a total ban on Iranian commercial air travel around the world, China has announced that they will continue to allow Iranian commercial aircraft to operate within their nation. This position was announced the same day that the White House welcomes President Xi for his first state visit in a decade. New York: The United Nations General Assembly continues as before. Various protest events took place outside the UN building throughout the day, including a few minor groups which blocked traffic for a short while. Analyst Comment: Otherwise, an alleged meeting also took place between American and Iranian diplomats on the sidelines of the Assembly, which does not appear to have resulted in any sort of positive movement toward a peace agreement. Both sides appear to be heavily entrenched in their positions, with no real room for actual negotiations at the moment. Illinois: The Joliet Refinery is returning to normal operations, after being offline for the past ten days due to flooding which caused a power outage. Fuel prices are expected to drop by a few cents throughout the Midwest as this refinery begins to come back online, with gas prices expected to return to the national average after being elevated due to this refinery being offline. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Within northeastern Africa, trouble is brewing in Ethiopia. This beleaguered African nation has been host to civil unrest for many years, as tensions between government forces and rebels within the Tigray region have remained constant. Northern Ethiopia has become inflamed following years of dispute over the administration of the Tigray region. In 2022, a tenuous peace settled in throughout Ethiopia and Eritrea, after Ethiopia and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) reached a sort of truce regarding the administration of the Tigray region. Last month, the peace deal started unravelling, and as of the past few days, the TPLF is mobilizing once again. This time, a coalition of various militia groups has formed, comprised of the TPLF, the Amhara Fano ​National Movement, and a handful of others operating under a common banner. As of this morning, TPLF militants have captured the airports in Mekelle, Axum, and Shire, which are comparatively important airports throughout the region. Based on statements by the group, the TPLF is once again trying to overthrow the Ethiopian government and re-take power (as the TPLF ruled the country from the early 90's up until 2018). While it looks like yet another typical African conflict between the standard warlord types, this conflict is escalating at the worst possible time, when there is already tension in the region as brought on by the Houthis just across the Red Sea. Perhaps most importantly, is the complex web of relationships and alliances. As is extremely common throughout the region, when there's trouble in one African nation, the culprit is usually next door. And in this case, Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of funding the TPLF and trying to overthrow Ethiopia (accusations which Eritrea denies). How this develops over the next few weeks will be important to watch, simply due to the tensions that are already complicating the region. Nobody needs another war adjacent to a major international waterway, and if this gets worse there's no telling how more destabilization will affect the region. If the TPLF can keep their grievances centered on the Ethiopian government, and if the conflict stays within Ethiopia (as it has so far) this won't be that impactful to the world economy. But if this conflict becomes more regional in a few weeks, this could get ugly. Now that the TPLF has a coalition of other groups, they cover a wider swath of public sentiment, and have the potential to turn up the heat, and if they so choose...allow the pot to boil over. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z September 22, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: TRUMP SIGNS AGREEMENT WITH GREENLAND, SECURING RIGHT TO BUILD TWO MORE AMERICAN BASES. WHITE HOUSE FLOATS DIESEL EXPORT BAN AMID DWINDLING STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVES. VILNIUS AIRPORT BRIEFLY SHUT DOWN DUE TO BALLOON INCURSIONS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Saudi Arabia: Officials have announced that some repairs to the East-West Pipeline have been conducted, and some form of capacity has allegedly returned. Some exports are expected to return within a few days, however no onloading of crude has actually occurred yet. Analyst Comment: It will take about a week or so to determine exactly how much crude is able to flow through whatever repairs were made. Europe: Overnight Lithuania disclosed an airspace incident in Vilnius, claiming that Belarus released large balloons which drifted into Lithuanian airspace in the vicinity of Vilnius International Airport. Aircraft were grounded for some time due to the incursions, but flights were able to resume later on last night. Analyst Comment: This has happened before, and is a common annoyance that is squarely in the realm of an act that is enough to cause problems, but not big enough of a problem to launch a war over. Lithuania lost no time in calling this incident a "hybrid war attack", and as a result tensions remain high throughout the region. -HomeFront- New York: The UN General Assembly continues, with President Trump speaking before the UN this morning. During his remarks, the main items of note included threatening regime change in Cuba, and threatening further military action in Iran. In addition to the standard proceedings, President Trump also signed a trilateral agreement with Greenland and Denmark, securing terms to build two new American bases in the arctic, which will bolster the American presence in Greenland. Washington D.C. - Media concerns continue as the White House has banned several legacy media outlets. CNN, Politico, and MS NOW have been banned from the press pool, and not allowed on White House grounds. As a result, most other media outlets have refused to cover White House events, with journalists protesting the move by not showing up, leaving the White House Press Pool effectively empty. At around the same time as the media ban, the White House announced a new state-sponsored media outlet, Trump TV, which will feature all approved messaging from the White House. Analyst Comment: Though the squabble between the White House and the legacy media would normally not be worthy of note, at this point this saga is resulting in logistical issues. No tears shall be shed for legacy media, but right now things are happening around the world, and they are quite literally the only entities that are allowed into the White House to directly question officials. At a time when the US is involved in two major wars that are expanding by the day, a state-sponsored TV channel is not an ideal form of information exchange. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Around the nation, the fuel crisis continues to develop. Nationwide fuel prices continue to rise, with average gasoline prices remaining at $4.48/gal and diesel at $6.50/gal (and continuing to climb). Heating oil prices in New England have risen sharply over the past few weeks, with prices reaching almost $6.00/gal throughout the American northeast, a 70% price increase from last year. This afternoon, rhetoric surrounding a potential export ban on diesel continued to escalate, with President Trump stating that a decision either way is coming soon. Concerning the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), releases from the SPR have dwindled over the past month, as the salt caverns begin to reach emergency levels. Some reports indicate that at least some of the salt caverns that comprise the bulk of our strategic reserve may be starting to reach unsafe levels of drawdown. As a reminder, most of the American Strategic Petroleum Reserve is located at four locations that host a series of old salt caverns in Texas and Louisiana. These caverns are a few hundred feet wide, and half a mile deep. These were formed by pumping water underground which mixed with the salt, and the mixture was pumped out again to sell as commercial grade salt back in the 1940's. After these caverns were empty, they found renewed use for storing crude oil. The mechanics of getting crude out of these caverns is simply to pump in water, and the crude floats to the top to be pumped out. At a certain point, the cavern becomes mostly water...and water and salt mixing tends to be bad for the structural integrity of salt caverns. As a result, many of these salt caverns are theoretically rated for only one-time use...as in, when all the oil is sucked out and only water remains, the cavern might collapse in on itself. This is an oversimplification, but this is the general gist of how it works, taking into account that most details of exactly how this system works are classified for national security reasons. As a result of these security concerns, speculation has to be heavy because the exact details of the "red line" are not publicly known and are complicated by the unique geography of the caverns themselves. The term "hitting brine" is one of the scariest phrases that can be uttered around this system, because it means that not only is the "tank" dry of crude, but that "tank" might collapse and not be able to be used again. The older caverns obviously suffer from this effect more, as the earlier caverns are oddly shaped and more prone to collapse, whereas the newer caverns don't present much of that risk. In short, when pushed to extremes (as we are right now) the entire SPR system is a grand mystery, and we're not really sure how far it can go. Every cavern is different, but most experts guess that the SPR can be safely emptied down to about 30-40% of it's total capacity. Some caverns can be emptied out more, but pushing beyond that might result in permanent damage to parts of the system. Theoretically, alarm bells should have been ringing when the SPR level dipped below 300 million barrels, which happened for the first time in history last month. As petroleum stockpiles have dropped to emergency levels, the US has less wiggle-room in terms of market fluctuations brought on my missiles and drones zipping into refineries around the world. Currently, the SPR sits at 284.6 million barrels in storage, all total. Congress has set a legal hard limit of 252.4 million barrels, meaning that the President would have to declare a full-blown emergency to dip below that. This is probably a contributing reason for why gas prices have continued to rise; SPR releases have slowed down because we're approaching the bottom of the tank. How much further that "tank" can be emptied is becoming mostly an exercise in guesswork, since we are now operating at the far edge of the initial specifications of our national strategic petroleum reserve. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z September 21, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: BALTIC STATES ISSUE WARNINGS CONCERNING ALLEGEDLY IMMINENT RUSSIAN HYBRID WARFARE ATTACKS. NEWARK ATC SECTOR SHUT DOWN DUE TO CUT CABLE THIS AFTERNOON. UNITED NATIONS GENERAL ASSEMBLY BEGINS IN NEW YORK.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Europe: Tensions are escalating between NATO and Russia, after Lithuania and Latvia have released alleged Russian plans to conduct more active "hybrid war" targeting within the Baltic states, as major military exercises continue around the region. In Lithuania, the STRONG GRIFFIN 2026 large scale military exercise came to a close after running for two weeks near the Belarussian border. Separately, a larger exercise (Perkūno Griausmas 2026) is currently underway, which seeks to test Lithuania's ability to shift from peacetime, to a wartime footing. As a result of both major defense initiatives, tensions have risen as both Belarus and Russia react to wartime preparations on their borders. Against the backdrop of these major exercises, other developments took place over the past few days which have complicated the situation further. On Thursday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that Poland had intelligence indicating that Russia will seek to escalate "hybrid warfare" tactics throughout Europe over the next few weeks, to include within Poland. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys also confirmed that Lithuania had the same intelligence, and concurred with Poland's assessment. Similar concurrences were issued by the Czech Republic, France, Estonia, and Latvia. -HomeFront- New York: This morning the United Nations General Assembly began, which notably included appearances by Iranian officials, which were allowed to enter the United States to attend the proceedings at the UN. President Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Araghchi arrived this morning, and so far have been confined to the United Nations building as the United States has not issued visas for their free travel around New York. Washington D.C. - On Saturday the State Department issued a worldwide travel warning for Americans abroad, warning of increased potential for attacks as the wars in the Middle East and Europe are expected to escalate. The American Embassies in all Middle Eastern nations also issued similar warnings, reemphasizing the risks to Americans abroad. Analyst Comment: The United States had originally planned to conduct strikes on the Houthis in Yemen, but President Trump decided against the operation at the last minute. This was possibly due to the UN summit today, or more specifically, to prevent the White House from having to deal with another escalation of the war while key leaders and diplomats are located within the US for the summit. Northeast: This morning ground stops were issued for several airspace sectors throughout the region, after a series of mechanical issues resulted in communications systems going offline. The FAA stated that a contractor working on an Amtrak line accidentally cut into a series of underground communications cables at a critical juncture, which resulted in a loss of radar systems throughout the Newark sector. Newark Liberty, JFK, Teterboro, LaGuardia, and dozens of other airports nationwide experienced ground stops and delays while the cable was fixed. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Going back to the height of the Cold War, the nations of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have been some of the most vocal NATO members concerning Russian aggression in the region, purely due to where they are located. To put it bluntly, these three nations tend to freak out quite often anytime Russia sneezes in their direction, simply due to geography....if Russia is to launch a Cold-War-style ground invasion of Europe, she will probably do so via the Suwałki Gap separating Kaliningrad from mainland Russia. As a result of this extreme closeness to Russia, NATO tends to rather unceremoniously treat these three nations as a "speed bump" for Russian tanks, which is intended to buy NATO some time to activate their true defensive line...which is mostly in Poland. Nearly all serious land-based defenses are in Poland and Germany, and have been for a long time. In nearly all defensive drills Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are unfortunately expected to fall to Russia nearly immediately, in the event that war were to break out. These concepts are certainly outdated based on the technological advances that drones bring to modern warfare, but this has been the training assumption for several decades. All three of these nations suffer from unfortunate geography and very small military forces (Estonia's entire national army, for example, is smaller than the Arkansas National Guard). This is why any reports of "imminent war" from these three nations in particular, must be viewed with a giant heaping of salt. However, all of this history does not automatically mean that the claims of increased Russian "hybrid war" are not true; in the boy-who-cried-wolf story, the boy eventually does see the actual wolf one day. That might be what's happening in Europe, when viewed in the wider context of the tensions that have been building; Russia probably does seek to increase their own probing "incidents", after NATO has helped Ukraine carry out attacks on Russia. Helping Ukraine defend their terrain is one thing, but allowing Ukraine to carry out offensive attacks deep into Russia is being perceived by Russia as being a direct attack by NATO. It doesn't make it morally right or fair, but that's the reality of the situation. Now that NATO has been supporting Ukraine for so long, NATO has been slowly creeping toward a more direct confrontation with Russia...and the Balkan states are now concerned that this might be starting to happen. How this will develop over the next few days will be telling. Right now there are no major Russian troop movements within the border regions, and there is no threat whatsoever of a ground offensive through Lithuania. Mysterious drone sightings continue to plague European airports, and probably will remain constant for some time. Drone flights through Lithuanian airspace to Kaliningrad are probably going to increase over the next few weeks as well, which will impact commercial aviation mostly in the form of aircraft being grounded during the incursions and drone sightings. Otherwise, sabotage attacks in Europe will probably escalate over the next few weeks, as tensions remain high throughout the continent. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2000Z September 17, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: SAUDIS CLAIM THAT THE EAST-WEST PIPELINE WILL BE REPAIRED SOON, DESPITE THE TOTAL DESTRUCTION OF SEVERAL PUMPING STATIONS. UNITED STATES WEIGHS MITIGATION ACTIONS TO PREVENT DIESEL CRISIS FROM EXPANDING. PRESIDENT XI AND PRESIDENT RAMAPHOSA REPORTEDLY FELL ILL DURING BRICS SUMMIT.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- India: Multiple world leaders have reportedly fallen ill after attending the BRICS summit in New Delhi. Chinese President Xi Jinping skipped the gala dinner and returned to China early, and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa also had to depart India early due to an unspecified illness. His Deputy President, Paul Mashatile, also fell ill at the same time, as has been confirmed by the South African government. Analyst Comment: Right now, it's not clear as to if the illnesses are the result of malign action, or just the natural reaction to being in India. Multiple leaders from separate countries falling ill at around the same time is a big clue, but Chinese sources are speculating that President Xi might have had a stroke. At the moment, there is nothing confirming this as Xi's personal life tends to be extremely private, and there has been no official confirmation regarding why he departed the BRICS summit early. Saudi Arabia: Repair work up and down the East-West Pipeline continues, along with repairs at Yanbu. Saudi forces have also requested air defenses from various European nations, as the United States has declined to become involved in defending their refineries. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Concerns continue to mount regarding the status of Senator Mitch McConnell. Yesterday, he was transported to the Capitol to vote on an agricultural spending bill, and footage of him continues to indicate that he is very visibly not well or coherent. Sen. McConnell has generally been conscious, but unresponsive to verbal comments made by journalists attempting to ask him questions. USA: Around the nation, reports of gasoline and diesel shortages are beginning to manifest, as several gas stations have announced that they are out of gas. Gas stations in North Texas, Florida, and California have all reported being out of gas as of last night. Analyst Comment: Right now it's hard to pinpoint exactly what is causing these specific shortages. To be sure, a handful of gas stations running out of gas is not indicative of a dire and imminent nationwide shortage; based on the EIA's Weekly Status Report, last week gasoline stocks in the US were only down 4.6% from what they were last year. However the empty pumps don't lie, and right now the most likely explanation for localized gasoline shortages is a combination of logistical issues delaying shipments to individual gas stations...and panic buying which will drain a gas station much faster than normal. Due to oil execs saying gas prices are going to increase over the next few days, people are probably trying to get ahead of the curve. Since most gas stations only have a day's worth of gas (and rely on nearly daily deliveries to refill their underground tanks), it doesn't take much of an increase in demand to generate a localized shortage. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Saudi oil contracts continued to be canceled as the scale of Houthi attacks continues to expand. All oil onloading at Yanbu has been halted for at least six days, and the only other source for Saudi exports is now through smaller ports, or through Ras Tanura via the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the devastation, some Saudi officials claim that the East-West Pipeline will return to at least 50% of it's capacity within a few days, though this appears to be wishful thinking at best. At the moment, formalized force majeure declarations have not taken place, but Aramco has "deferred" deliveries of crude for the rest of the month of September, and various contracts continue to be canceled. As it stands, Saudi Arabia is seriously in trouble and it's extremely unlikely that Saudi Arabia will be exporting any sizable amount of oil for a while. European oil traders seem rather adamant that Saudi Arabia has already canceled most of their contracts with various customers for oil deliveries, however Saudi officials assure the world that everything is fine and they will be back to full capacity soon. Saudi sources have claimed that the SUMED pipeline (with it's capacity of 2.5 million barrels per day) can be used as a partial-backup to the East-West Pipeline being down. However there is one problem with this plan...geography. The SUMED pipeline is not in Saudi Arabia, it's in Egypt. And the only way that the Saudis can use this pipeline, is to load oil at Yanbu, sail it on ships across the Red Sea, and deposit the crude in Egypt to be sent down the pipeline. The single point of failure for this "backup" pipeline is the same point of failure for the East-West Pipeline...Yanbu. Which is currently offline due to Houthi strikes. Whatever the truth is regarding exactly how much oil is able to exit the Middle East, it will be discovered rather quickly as crude cannot be conjured up out of thin air, and at some point the sheer lack of volume will have to be acknowledged. Within the homeland, the United States has begun more serious mitigation efforts due to the Saudis being offline for presumably a long time. The Department of Transportation has issued a 90-day waiver for truckers carrying fuel, easing Hours-of-Service (HOS) regulations to allow truckers to drive more hours in a 24 hour period. The White House is also still considering an export ban on diesel, in order to ease rising costs in the United States. If this were to be enacted, domestic prices would probably dip, but the shock to the system could result in unintended consequences in the long term. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2100Z September 16, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: OIL EXECUTIVES SOUND ALARMS REGARDING FUEL CRISIS, STATING THAT FUEL PRICES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE SHARPLY AND IMMINENTLY. HOUTHIS SHOOT DOWN SAUDI FIGHTER AIRCRAFT. HELICOPTER CRASH REPORTED IN LOS ANGELES. DC POLICE UNION VOICES CONCERN WITH POLICE OFFICERS BEING SURVEILLED BY FLOCK SENSORS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Europe: Fuel prices have begun to spike throughout the region, after Saudi Arabia announced that they will be halting all shipments of oil to the European continent. In Germany, the average diesel price is almost $11.00 per gallon nationwide, having increased steadily over the past few days. Other than diesel and gasoline, natural gas levels are also at the lowest level in years, with natural gas continuing to dwindle after Qatar shut down production after being targeted during the height of the war. Red Sea/HOA: Conflict between the Saudis and Houthis has continued to escalate. Overnight, the Houthis shot down a Saudi F-15 fighter aircraft over Marib. The status of the aircrew is not known. Analyst Comment: Several instances of fake or confusing videos regarding the crash have circulated social media regarding this shootdown. Due to several Persian websites using the Hijri Islamic calendar system for timestamping their articles, Google's auto-translate feature is mistranslating that date, and indicating that the video is from 2021. As a result, Saudis are claiming that the videos of the shootdown are either fake or from years ago. However, this is an error; the video is a new product released by official Houthi accounts and does appear to depict the shootdown overnight. To the north, Houthi forces also hit Yanbu with substantial drone strikes overnight, with dozens of impacts being reported at the oil terminals. Satellite based fire detection sensors indicate that the port of Yanbu remained on fire throughout the night. Proper battle damage assessment will take a few more days to materialize, but as of this morning the Houthis have continued to press the attack, and have struck Saudi facilities regularly over the past few days. Analyst Comment: Yesterday, rumors began to circulate that the Houthis have begun to lay mines in the Bab el Mandeb Strait, as a way of restricting travel through the waterway. As it stands, this is probably not true for many reasons. For one, the Houthis have historically not show interest in laying sea mines. Secondly, the Houthis have very carefully NOT instituted a blanket ban on travel through the Strait...they are only blockading Saudi ships. Everybody else is free to pass without being targeted or even contacted by radio. The Houthis are certainly still a threat to commercial shipping, and could possibly expand their blockade to include nations other than just Saudi Arabia, but there is very little chance that the Houthis have mined anything at present. Middle East: This morning Fox News leaked details of an Iranian strike on a merchant vessel in the strait of Hormuz, which was struck last week while attempting to exit the Gulf. At the time, this vessel was not any different than the dozens of other strikes that have taken place, however Fox News reports (via unnamed leakers) that U.S. personnel were onboard this vessel at the time of the Iranian strike. The report has not explicitly stated whether or not these individuals were military service members, or were U.S. citizens/contractors crewing the vessel. However, several people were wounded as a result of the Iranian targeting, and are currently being treated at an undisclosed location in the region. -HomeFront- Washington D.C - The Capitol Police Union has voiced outrage concerning the use of Flock cameras by the Metropolitan Police Department (MPD). The Union alleges that Internal Affairs officers were using the intelligence collection sensor network to monitor their own officers without their knowledge. The Union also alleges that there are no guardrails for the use of this technology, nor is there any transparency on how these sensors are being used by the MPD. Analyst Comment: As has been noted by nearly everyone who is not actively getting paid to promote these technologies, one aspect of tracking every human being in the country is that high ranking individuals (who might be prone to being blackmailed) are also caught in the sensor network's dragnet. As demonstrated by the DC Police Union (perhaps not in the way that they intended), nobody cares when the taxpayers are surveilled relentlessly...but the elites and most law enforcement agencies do care when they themselves are being monitored. The National Capitol Region (NCR) is a very sensitive area, and all elected officials might be a little upset to find out that every vehicle that arrives at their homes on Capitol Hill in the middle of the night...is logged by a private company that now has leverage over them, which would serve as rather powerful blackmail potential. California: Yesterday evening, a helicopter crash was reported in Los Angeles. An NBC news helicopter crashed while covering a motor vehicle accident in the neighborhood of Chatsworth. The incident was captured live on air as the helicopter crashed, and both crew members were killed during the impact. One bystander on the ground was also killed after being hit by the debris from the crashing helicopter. No word yet on what caused the crash, but early indications suggest the helicopter may have suffered from engine failure or a catastrophic loss of power, which resulted in a loss of lift. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Continuing the trend, the energy crisis is worsening by the hour, with some industry professionals stating that the exponential curve of escalating problems has arrived. Yesterday Tom Kloza, the Chief Energy Advisor for Gulf Oil, stated that sharp increases in gasoline and diesel prices are expected over the next few days. Other oil executives have corroborated these sentiments as well, with several alarming statements being made over the past 24 hours. Mike Wirth, the CEO of Chevron, stated that the fuel crisis has officially arrived, and will be compounded by most mitigating efforts used to keep prices low, being expended due to the war lasting so long. China has also reversed course over the past couple of weeks and is now buying up as much crude as possible, from any source they can get it from. Most of China's "teapot" refineries (i.e. the cluster of smaller independently-owned refineries in Shandong Province) are now increasing purchases of oil, in a market that is already quite strained. This is a not-so-subtle indicator that China thinks that right now is the cheapest oil will be for a while. Yesterday, oil futures in Shanghai traded at $129 per barrel...a full $8.00 higher than the absolute peak prices observed during the height of the war months ago. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2000Z September 15, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: SABOTAGE ATTACKS STRIKE DUTCH RAIL NETWORK. JOLIET REFINERY OFFLINE DUE TO UNPLANNED POWER OUTAGE. SAUDI ARABIA ANNOUNCES COMPLETE HALT TO EXPORT OPERATIONS IN YANBU, FURTHER SEPTEMBER CONTRACTS FOR OIL WILL NOT BE DELIVERED. LIBYAN OIL FIELDS SHUT DOWN DUE TO WORKER PROTESTS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Russia: Yesterday evening the conflict escalated, as Ukraine continued to target Russian petroleum infrastructure. The Syzran Refinery was struck by Ukrainian drones, which heavily damaged the facility. Analyst Comment: This series of attacks was notable as they occurred immediately after President Trump announced that both sides had agreed to not target each other's energy infrastructure. About six hours after this ceasefire was announced, it was broken by Ukraine's attack on this refinery. As of this report, Russia had not retaliated yet. Lithuania: NATO fighter aircraft were scrambled to intercept an unidentified drone within Lithuanian airspace. The drone, which Lithuanian officials claim was Russian, originated from Belarussian airspace, and was shot down near the region of Kaunas. Netherlands: Early this morning a series of sabotage incidents were noted throughout the nation's rail network. Malign actors located all around the country placed metal pipes across the tracks at more than 20x locations. These pipes contacted both rails, tripping the sensors which register train movement on a particular section of track. This prompted automated systems and network operators to shut down much of the rail lines around the country, while authorities inspected the tracks. Analyst Comment: As discovered by ecoterrorists within the United States years ago, this is an effective way to shut down a rail line, because it tricks the automated sensors along the line into thinking that a train is on the track. When replicated at dozens of locations along a national rail network, the entire country can be effectively shut down without any explosives or kinetic attacks being used. No word yet on who caused this specific attack, but it does fit the historical trend of various ecoterrorist groups, which have used similar tactics over the years. Libya: This morning, Libyan officials announced the shut down of most of their oil fields, after the security guards at their main oil fields have begun protests related to pay issues. The Petroleum Facilities Guard, a quasi-militia force that has provided security for the oil fields since the collapse of the Gaddafi government years ago, has essentially taken the oil fields hostage, in order to demand higher pay for their security forces. Analyst Comment: For the context of how much this matters, Libya has been exporting a little more than a million barrels of oil per day, roughly 85% of which gets sold directly to Europe. By comparison, Venezuela exports about the same amount. As such, security guards taking over random oil fields in northern Africa has effectively canceled out any perceived benefit that the capture of Venezuelan oil has made to the global oil markets. Middle East: Overnight targeting between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia resulted in more Saudi oil facilities being struck. Combined with the attacks over the weekend, a total of three major pumping stations along the East-West Pipeline have been completely destroyed, and several other larger refineries have been hit hard by Houthi missiles and drones. The Abha Bulk Plant was struck and remains on fire as of this afternoon, and facilities continue to be taken offline due to the constant exchange of fire between the Saudis and Houthis. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - This morning Senator Mitch McConnell made his first public appearance since his illness struck months ago, with Capitol Police escorting him from his residence to the Capitol. The media was present as Sen. McConnell was brought out of his residence, and the footage indicates that he was visibly not well or coherent as he was put inside the vehicle transporting him to the Capitol. Illinois: Yesterday evening the Joliet Refinery was shut down due to an undisclosed power outage caused the majority of hte facility to shut down. Emergency flaring was observed by locals as the entire refinery was shut down. As of this morning, the refinery is still offline, and is expected to be down until later this week. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The shutdown of multiple major refineries around the world over the past 72 hours is exceptionally concerning, and will have serious impact the longer these refineries and pumping stations remain offline. As nearly all refineries in the U.S. have been redlining at their absolute maximum production level for months now, it is absolutely certain that mechanical issues will emerge; when we run American refineries this hard for this long....things break. However, the other side of COIN is the passive understanding that right now, American refineries are ripe for malign action. This has been true throughout the war, but right now, any malign actor so interested can cause a lot of problems which are compounded by the effects of the war dragging on for so long. When refineries are being run at 100%, when the supply of crude is already spread thin, and when the Strategic Reserve is dwindling...there is less room for error, and the smallest effort from a malign actor can snowball and have more catastrophic effect than would be achieved during peacetime. This morning, Saudi Arabia announced that they will not be able to meet their September contracts for oil, due to the strikes on the East-West pipeline, and continued Houthi targeting. Oil onloading at Yanbu has completely shut down, and right now, the main way for the Saudis to export oil, would be to sneak tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, which they have been trying to do. However, with Iranian missiles continuing to fly, the global energy crisis is becoming more desperate by the hour. Libya is also offline for completely unrelated reasons, and now a major American refinery is offline too. All of these incidents would be very important even in isolation, but since they are taking place all at the same time, the negative affect to the global energy market becomes that much more significant. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//