Pricing of collectible pencils. Is a pencil Bitcoin? You and I see just two packs of ordinary pencils here — indeed, the most ordinary kind. The classic image: a yellow pencil, a pink eraser. The first factor that increases the price is age and condition. Mitsubishi has been producing 9852 since 1955. The golden era of Japanese pencils was the 1950s–70s. Here we have the 1980s. They’ve lost a bit of value, but also gained some. Japan had not yet felt the consequences of Black Monday in 1989 — the first major shock that permanently changed the country’s economy. After that, pencils made in Japan did not get better. And here, almost all of them are intact; only one has been sharpened. Second, let’s look at the hardness grade. H is a fairly hard pencil. Neither Japanese nor American users generally favor such hardness due to writing styles in Japan and the U.S. This is an office series, meaning there’s no marketing focus on artists — and artists don’t often need this hardness either. So have we lost value because it’s an unpopular grade? Even now, there are plenty of such pencils, and Mitsubishi still produces the office 9800 in H. That’s true — but the yellow-with-eraser version, specifically the 9852 in H, is no longer produced. There was no formal discontinuation announcement, but they’re not available for sale. This has strongly boosted collector interest. If we had HB, we would have lost value, because HB hasn’t been discontinued — but we have H, and we’ve gained. Did you notice that the hardness grade is printed in royal blue? Do you think that’s some unique feature? No — quite the opposite. More rarely, the grade was printed in silver or even black. Which is more valuable? Royal blue —because it’s the classic. If the grade were in silver foil, the pencil would lose about $10-20 in value. People like the classic look. Now notice that one pack has a black ferrule, whereas the classic ferrule for the series is usually copper-colored. That’s a plus for the price. But didn’t I just say people like the classic? By that logic, copper should be more valuable. Not exactly. People like classics — but they also like limited versions. Finally, let’s relax a bit and watch this nice cozy video about... these same pencils. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwY_sc7KYfQ Did you notice anything strange? No? You should have: a barcode on every modern pencil. They weren’t used in the past. Pencils without barcodes are more valuable than those with barcodes. So, in total, we can now sell these two packs for $80–90. How much did they cost when they were released? Hard to say. If they were made before ’85 — about $1; if after — about $2. In today’s money, that’s roughly $3–6. That’s an enormous return — more than 15× inflation. Is a pencil Bitcoin? Yes. A pencil is Bitcoin. #pencilstr #bitcoin
