worst part about vibe-coding with Claude is it'll use an old file, make changes to it, then you upload and replace and don't realize what happened until you're fixing the same bugs you already fixed. Surprised it's that poor at recognizing it.

Motorized wheelchairs for people who used to walk

It's chilly and cloudy out, but I'm going to the fucking track even though I don't feel like it because the GOATs go when they don't feel like it, and I'm the GOAT when it comes to running two 10:30 miles.

Real talk!

People dunking on Saylor for saying he'd sell to pay dividends, but the better question is *why* would he say that in an earnings call? If you assume Saylor is an idiot with lettuce hands, then you should probably not waste even a second thinking about MSTR because it's not for you. But if you assume as I do that Saylor is smart and didn't acquire 800K coins through two steep downturns because he's soft, how do you make sense of it? I'd say maybe (1) tax purposes, it is a corporation that has to pay taxes, and it might make sense to harvest some losses/improve his basis; (2) as proof of concept. If he sold 1K to pay dividends, then STRC is REALLY backed by the coins in the treasury, not just theoretically. This means he doesn't have to keep selling MSTR to raise USD reserves for the dividends because he can sell the BTC. And when you think about it, selling MSTR to raise USD reserves is the same thing as selling BTC because he NOT buying more BTC with the proceeds. IOW, by raising cash (which everyone loved), he was foregoing more BTC purchases. Why not just eliminate the middleman and sell BTC advantageously for tax purposes when needed rather than buying less due to the cash reserve? He can have only BTC in the treasury, and raise cash to pay the bills when needed. What's the downside? If he's willing to sell BTC, he's crossed the Rubicon. He was supposed to never sell, and once you open that door, what's the limit? The limit is his business model. If he sells half the BTC, no one wants MSTR anymore. If he sells at the edges to pay dividends, that doesn't harm the model. I think ultimately what this is is like an OG taking a Strike loan. You borrow fiat against your coins at 11 percent. Your coins appreciate over time, and instead of repaying the loan in fiat, you do it with an ever smaller slice of your stack over time. I think that's the model, and the upside of selling is showing the credit markets that YES, your STRC dividends really are backed by this giant stack that IS used to pay them. It's collateralized 5:1 for real, not just in theory. I've been wrong many times, but IMO this is bullish for MSTR, and also BTC because once the message gets out that STRC is really that well collaterized, the floodgates will open, and the bid will get larger and larger until their are no willing sellers under a much higher number.

such a mystery, what could it possibly be?

Because you and I have extremely limited knowledge of geopolitics, of what's actually happening in Iran or the middle east. We have more than enough knowledge about life to know you don't kill babies because you think it will accrue to the greater good. When you don't know what you're talking about, best to wait for results before you evaluate. Iraq was a disaster, we can be pretty sure, years later. People were hyperventilating about taking Maduro in Venezuela, and that *might* turn out well. Iran might too. We don't know. The difference from an information perspective is vast. As I said, it's like getting worked up about a politician cheating on his wife -- you don't know them, their relationship, what preceded it, etc. You do know not to cheat on your own wife. If you were to distill it into a principle it would be this: You don't know all the consequences of ANYTHING you do. But when you act locally, you have enough specific knowledge to form intelligent heuristics and iterate. It's not perfect, but it works. That DOES NOT work or apply to low-information situations involving people you don't know engaged in geopolitics. For those, a wise person will wait for results before evaluating. It was obvious to me at the time that while I didn't know how this would turn out, and was deciding to wait, the hyperventilators also did not know either. The CNNs and the NYTimes were probably lying and framing things for political signaling, and most people were getting doctored information to fit their priors. I did believe Trump doesn't seem hellbent on killing civilians or getting us into a protracted military quagmire, based on his history as president, but I would never say he couldn't screw up, miscalculate or actually just be a psycho waiting for his chance. But while any of that was surely possible, I was pretty sure there WAS a plan, that plan was likely to track the incentives of the planners and those incentives probably were not WWIII, again with the possibility I was wrong. That's why I can't be for the intervention until we find out more. If you want to be a good evaluator of information in the information age, you need to adjust your certainty levels based on what you know and don't know, not based on whether it confirms your biases.

Interesting that certain sports can theoretically get stuck in infinite loops. Baseball has two-strike foul balls that can go on forever, tennis can have infinite lets. Like if you simulated an infinite number of games, some would never get past the first batter/point. Would be great to tell thr grandkids you spent a year at the infinite let match.

wife: did you hear about Sara's friends whose dog got into their mushroom chocolates? me: no, what happened? wife: dog was acting very weird me: probably realized it was a dog and freaked

Got this new gig, where I get paid to go running at the track 3x week. Anyone can do this. You set the currency to photons, create a transdermal wallet (usually the default setting), will require you remove your shirt, or some of the photons will fail to land in your account), and simultaneously it puts money into your future healthcare fund by reducing the liability side. I also get paid in idea-flow, into my frontal cortex account-- many of my best ones occur while running.