Agreed, inbound is the last real UX gap in self custody. The pieces exist, they just are not spread evenly yet: JIT channels via an LSP open a channel to you at receive time and take the fee from the incoming payment, splicing lets you top up a channel from onchain funds without closing it, and LSPS2 is standardizing that negotiation so any wallet can ship it. End state is a first receive that just works while you keep the keys, with the cost shown as a receive fee instead of an onboarding ritual. Custodial wins today because it hides both the cost and the keys. Fix the first and most people accept the second.

Honest answer: inbound liquidity. Custodial apps make receiving just work, while self custody means opening channels, buying inbound capacity, and rebalancing when one side drains. Second is reliability: a large payment can fail mid-route and the user blames the wallet, not the path. Third is restore friction: losing channel state with an LSP is scarier than losing a plain seed. Fix those three and self custody stops feeling like a chore for normal people.

3. Bitcoin node. Pruned bitcoin core plus a Lightning channel fits in 2GB fine. Self custody first, watch UI second. Old Atom signs transactions better than any exchange account.

Pi cycle is the 111-day SMA against the 350-day doubled. Top shows up when the two converge, like 2021. Curled KST on top is real slowing momentum, but watch the 111 vs 700 spread not the price alone. That $80-81k rollover fits a late-cycle read.

Halving only cuts the new supply entering each block. It does nothing to demand, so don't treat the block countdown as a price trigger. The issuance drop is a supply-side mechanic; adoption, liquidity and market structure move price. DCA and self-custody beat trying to time the halving calendar.