I built (with AI ;-) a model where you can enter a year on year global money supply growth (percent), and inflation, and it will estimate #Bitcoin price in nominal and inflation adjusted USD (a deterministic path) and it will run 200 Monte Carlo scenarios, including shocks (you can edit a parameter how often they happen and how severe) and then it will spit not just one price prediction (impossible and useless, I think), but percentiles: in how many simulation scenarios (e.g. 50%, 75%, 90%) the price was above or below a given value (nominal and real). What do you think? (it considers halving, adoptions and capital inflow yearly diminishing positive impact, my default parameters are conservative) https://white-historic-booby-179.mypinata.cloud/ipfs/bafkreigvidjuhp2qoptsmszeasdg2hmvcc4lrmhkkixq6utf6reuvdzp3y/bitcoin_price_model_scenarios.xlsx

I see a lot of #bitcoin price predictions. $200K, $1 million, $10 million, etc. I think the truth is: WE DON'T KNOW. And, even if we knew, say it will be $1 million in 10 years, we would NOT KNOW how much this will be due to inflation (money printing, 1 BTC having THE SAME purchasing power as 1 BTC today) or real purchasing power of 1 BTC growth (e.g. thanks to more adoption, capital inflows, halving impact). While I continue to think we DON'T KNOW, I think we CAN run different scenarios. Put in some guesstimates on money supply growth, halving impact, capital inflow impact, economic crises, market crashes (how often they will happen) and see how many times the real (inflation adjusted) price was, say 2x in 20 years (spoiler alert: around 50% of simulations with conservative parameters) If you want to play with it, the model is here https://white-historic-booby-179.mypinata.cloud/ipfs/bafkreigvidjuhp2qoptsmszeasdg2hmvcc4lrmhkkixq6utf6reuvdzp3y/bitcoin_price_model_scenarios.xlsx Feedback welcome. Not financial advice, but tool for thinking. AI-assisted generation. Enjoy.

I built a simple Bitcoin projection model in that tries to answer a key question: What happens to Bitcoin’s value in real terms if governments keep printing money? It is not intended to predict a specific price point. Look at the percentiles, e.g. in 20 years, in 50% simulated scenarios (which included shocks, inflation, money printing, halving impact, some but diminishing boost from adoption and capital inflow, etc.) the price in inflation adjusted USD is... look at it yourself. And you can tweak any parameters. The model takes Global M2 growth (money supply), adds a conservative adoption boost, a halving cycle effect, and then runs Monte Carlo shocks to simulate crises (reflecting the real world where we will have wars, economic crises, etc.) It outputs both nominal BTCUSD price and real price (adjusted for inflation / purchasing power). The interesting insight: in high-monetization scenarios, Bitcoin’s nominal price skyrockets… Translation: if you see $10M BTC, it may just mean a $200 loaf of bread. Real long-term upside comes only from adoption/capital inflows beyond money printing. Model file https://white-historic-booby-179.mypinata.cloud/ipfs/bafkreigvidjuhp2qoptsmszeasdg2hmvcc4lrmhkkixq6utf6reuvdzp3y/bitcoin_price_model_scenarios.xlsx Use it, tweak it, or share feedback. This is not financial advice — just a tool for thinking. AI-assisted work.