I hope it pays off

that's already me and seriously today I was thinking getting that tattoo just not on the chest

If I had, let's say, a coldcard and you would take all my Bitcoin I'd gladly give you 10% to get 90% back

Justin Bechler (@1914ad) on X Justin Bechler @1914ad Article cover image Yesterday, trading was halted on $NAKA after the stock plunged 25% in a single session and its in a further -16% freefall today. My viral article "The Nakamoto Heist: How David Bailey Used a 99% Stock Collapse to Buy His Own Empire" closed three months ago with one line about David Bailey: "He's not finished." He wasn't then but he might be now. Since February 17, David Bailey has stripped his investment firm, closed an acquisition at four times the market price, pledged 87% of his company's Bitcoin to Kraken, executed a 1-for-40 reverse split, given himself $7.3 million in Q1 compensation against $2.7 million in total revenue, and announced the wind-down of the only operating business that generates external cash. He has 190 days to find $210 million. David F. Bailey, Nakamoto CEO and Chairman He has $35.3 million in cash and a market cap of $82 million. Bitcoin for Corporations, the institutional Bitcoin symposium he's hosting at The Glasshouse in Manhattan, opens in thirty days. This is what happened between the heist and the funeral. $710M The Heist already told the origin. The short version, if you didn't read it: in May 2025, a Utah opioid clinic operator called KindlyMD announced a merger with Nakamoto Holdings, a Bitcoin treasury vehicle Bailey founded. KDLY exploded from $2 to over $30 in days. Bailey raised $710 million from 200 PIPE investors at $1.12 per share. Retail bought at $28. The merger closed August 14, 2025. KindlyMD became NAKA. Anyone who bought at the top is down 99%. Bailey became CEO of the combined company through an entity he personally controls called BTC Consulting, LLC. He acquired a 17.33% personal stake. What the Heist didn't yet have was the Washington dimension. By the time of the merger, Bailey was the public face of the U.S. crypto lobby. CNBC, Cointelegraph, and Reuters identified him as a key Bitcoin advisor to Donald Trump's 2024 campaign, credited as a central figure in Trump's Bitcoin pivot. In August 2025, three months after the KindlyMD merger closed, Bailey announced on 𝕏 that he intended to raise a "$100m-$200m PAC, anchored by Nakamoto, to advance Bitcoin priorities" ahead of the 2026 midterms. Charles Allen, the CEO of publicly traded BTCS, posted a public warning: "your duties are to shareholders; if you anchor political efforts with public company funds, you may find yourself staring down the barrel of a class-action lawsuit for breach of fiduciary duty." The PAC announcement was followed by a 1-for-40 reverse split, not a $200 million fundraise. The Marketing Services Agreement buried inside the merger documents gave Nakamoto a call option to acquire BTC Inc and UTXO Management, both Bailey companies. The strike and the PIPE investors paid $1.12. The structure was clean if NAKA stock held its value. It didn't. $1.12 The Heist's climax was February 17. Bailey exercised the call options on his own private companies. The shares were issued February 20 at the $1.12 contractual strike against a $0.248 closing market price. Bailey personally received 96,283,791 NAKA shares for his BTC Inc stake and 11,916,837 for his UTXO stake. With his prior holdings and CEO RSUs, his personal stake became 119,361,200 shares, or 17.33% of the issuer. The Defiant called him "effectively the buyer, seller, and CEO approving the deal." Jim Chanos called it "Theater of the Absurd." https://x.com/i/web/status/2023828158047547661 The next day, on a Bitcoin Magazine X Space promoting the deal, Bailey claimed BTC Inc and UTXO had done "over $100 million in revenue" in 2025. The SEC-filed correction said $78 million. Bailey acknowledged the gap on X: "I was referencing previous estimated results and wasn't netting for intracompany transactions, this is why I shouldn't talk numbers outside of public filings." — @DavidFBailey, February 20, 2026, 15:54 UTC That admission appeared the day Bailey closed a transaction to issue 363.6M shares of a public company to himself and his co-founders. Three months later, the consequences of the deal, and the things the Heist hadn't yet seen, began to surface. $5M What didn't make the headlines in February was what Bailey and his UTXO co-founder, Tyler Evans, had done to UTXO in the six weeks before the call option was exercised. UTXO's audited 2025 financial statements were filed with the SEC on April 7, 2026, as Exhibit 99.2 to an 8-K/A amendment. The Subsequent Events section walks through the sequence. On January 1, 2026, UTXO redeemed its entire general-partner capital account from 210k Capital, the Bitcoin fund UTXO manages, pulling out $10,800,840 in the form of $9.07 million in cash, $889,200 of Strategy Class C preferred (STRC), and $838,734 of Metaplanet stock. The fund manager extracted its own GP stake from the fund it ran. Six weeks before selling itself to NAKA. On January 13, 2026, UTXO signed a Contribution and Assignment Agreement transferring four portfolio investments to a newly formed entity called UTXO Legacy, LLC. The auditor's note states that UTXO Legacy "has the same beneficial owners as the Company." The four investments transferred out: Mining Company One, LLC; Navier, Inc.; Unchained Capital Inc.; and TVP Bitcoin Venture Fund I, LP. The investments were lifted out of UTXO and parked with the same owners under a different LLC. On February 6, 2026, UTXO entered a Redemption, Assignment and Separation Agreement with one of its three members. The member's 33.33% interest was redeemed for $5 million in cash. Implied valuation of the now-stripped UTXO: $15 million. The departing member resigned and agreed to provide transition services through May 31, 2026. Ten days after the redemption, on February 16, 2026, Bailey caused NAKA to exercise the call option on the now-stripped, two-member UTXO. The two remaining members were Bailey and Evans. At the $1.12 strike, Bailey alone received 11.9 million NAKA shares for his half of UTXO. Evans received a comparable block. Together, they extracted from NAKA's public balance sheet considerably more than they had paid the departing partner ten days earlier. Inside the BTC Inc audited financials, filed alongside UTXO's in the same 8-K/A, is a separate related-party disclosure. In 2021, BTC Inc made loans to Bailey totaling $999,982 at 2% annual interest, payable in full at maturity, with no prepayment penalty. The loan was still outstanding as of December 31, 2025. When NAKA acquired BTC Inc in February 2026, the receivable transferred. Bailey now owes his own public company $1 million at 2%. But the call option exercise wasn't the largest dollar event of the quarter. Ten weeks earlier, Bailey had signed a different kind of agreement with a different kind of counterparty. That one was disclosed in December. $210M On December 3, 2025, three months after closing the merger that gave him control of NAKA, Bailey signed a Master Loan Agreement with Payward Financial, Inc., the affiliate that operates Kraken. The principal was $210 million USDT. The annual fee was 8%. The maturity was December 4, 2026. The minimum collateral requirement was $323.4 million in Bitcoin, held at a designated wallet at Kraken. The initial loan-to-value ratio was approximately 65%. The loan came with a make-whole clause. If NAKA prepaid within the first six months of initial funding, a make-whole payment was triggered. The six-month anniversary is June 4, 2026. After that date, NAKA can prepay without penalty. Eight days from now. The Q1 10-Q footnote describes the collateral mechanics in vague terms: "customary conditions, collateral maintenance and liquidation mechanics." The specific maintenance ratio isn't disclosed in the public filing. But the company's actions are. Bailey was at the European Bitcoin Conference the night the agreement was signed: "Every company needs a bitcoin strategy." — @DavidFBailey, December 4, 2025, 01:52 UTC https://x.com/DavidFBailey/status/1996397150075519131 The loan was publicly disclosed two weeks later via 8-K. The structure was visible to anyone reading the filing: https://x.com/i/web/status/2000900499634315662 On January 30, NAKA filed an 8-K disclosing the First Amendment to the Master Loan Agreement. The amendment added a designated trading wallet at Kraken as collateral, both for the loan and for any trading activity through that wallet. The same Bitcoin pool that secured the $210 million loan would later also secure a derivatives program NAKA announced in April. On February 5, with Bitcoin trading in the upper $80,000 range, NAKA pledged an additional 688 Bitcoin to satisfy collateral maintenance requirements. This was the first margin call. The 4,405 pledged Bitcoin sits at Kraken as of the Q1 10-Q. It represents 87% of NAKA's 5,064-coin holdings. The remaining 659 Bitcoin are unencumbered. "I was here when Bitcoin was $10 and I'll be here when Bitcoin is 10 cents or 10 million. All in." — @DavidFBailey, February 5, 2026, 14:31 UTC https://x.com/DavidFBailey/status/2019418570627903742 That post is timestamped to within hours of the same day Nakamoto's filings show 688 Bitcoin moving into a Kraken wallet to avoid a margin call. Six tweets that day, all bullish. None mentioning the corporate action. In April, NAKA announced a "Bitcoin derivatives program" managed by Bitwise Asset Management through a separately managed account. The covered-call and call-spread strategy uses the same Kraken-held Bitcoin pool that secures the loan. NAKA's own risk disclosures flag "the interaction between the derivatives program and Nakamoto's existing secured credit facility, including collateral priority and cross-default risk," and "the risk that margin or collateral calls could require the forced liquidation of Bitcoin holdings at unfavorable prices." The risk is in the company's own filings. In Q1 2026, NAKA sold 284 Bitcoin at an average of $70,422 per coin to fund operations, generating $20 million. Quarterly interest expense on the Kraken loan was $4.22 million, against $2.7 million in total operating revenue and $238.8 million in net loss. Cash at the end of Q1: $35.3 million. The Q1 loss included $107.7 million on the BTC Inc call option asset before the deal closed. $73,400 The loan has two clocks. The first is a date, December 4. The second is the Bitcoin price. The collateral math is in the filings. The loan requires a minimum of $323.4 million in pledged Bitcoin. At the current 4,405 pledged coins, that minimum is satisfied when Bitcoin trades at $73,400 or above. Bitcoin trades at $75,400 as of this morning. The cushion above the original minimum collateral level: 2.7%. The February 5 top-up tells us where the real maintenance line sits. Before the top-up, NAKA had 3,717 pledged Bitcoin. With Bitcoin in the upper $80,000 range, the implied loan-to-collateral ratio at the time of action was approximately 150%. The maintenance trigger, inferred from the disclosed action, is roughly 150% loan-to-collateral, well below the 154% initial requirement but above outright insolvency. Four price zones to watch. At $71,500 per Bitcoin, the 4,405 pledged coins equal $315 million, or 150% of the $210 million principal. This is the level where the February 5 top-up was triggered. Next demand for additional collateral becomes likely here. At $62,200 per Bitcoin, all 5,064 NAKA Bitcoin holdings equal $315 million. Even pledging the remaining 659 unencumbered coins, the 150% maintenance line is reached. The cushion is gone. At $41,500 per Bitcoin, all 5,064 NAKA Bitcoin equal $210 million. The Bitcoin stack alone covers the loan principal, with no margin for accrued interest, fees, or transaction costs. At $34,400 per Bitcoin, the Bitcoin stack plus the $35.3 million in cash equals $209.7 million in reported debt. Below this level, NAKA is underwater on a clean liquidation basis before counting operating losses or derivative losses. Bitcoin holders have a number to watch. $71,500. The current price sits 5% above it. A single trading day's drawdown closes the gap. After the next top-up, the unencumbered 659 coins are gone. After that, the derivatives margin and the loan collateral are drawing on the same exhausted pool. This is the price clock. It ticks every minute and the market is brutal. $0.17 On April 29, 2026, with NAKA trading at $0.17 per pre-split share, Bailey posted the following to his 200,000-follower X account: "Since February @TheBitcoinConf as well as all our global events, @BitcoinMagazine, and our asset manager @UTXOmgmt are all owed by @nakamoto. We also own net of debt ~$0.25 of bitcoin. Right now $NAKA trades at ~$0.17/share. I'll let you do that math." — @DavidFBailey, April 29, 2026 https://x.com/DavidFBailey/status/2049527198680486163 That post sells a stock. It's investment promotion to a personal audience. It frames NAKA as a discount because, net of debt, the company owns $0.25 of Bitcoin per share against a $0.17 trading price. What the post omits, from a CEO required by securities law to maintain consistent disclosure, is every material fact in the company's own SEC filings: that 87% of the Bitcoin is pledged to Kraken, that the $210 million principal matures December 4, that the company had already burned 284 Bitcoin in Q1 to fund operations at $70,422 per coin, that February's collateral top-up demanded 688 more Bitcoin, that the maintenance ratio is approaching its trigger again, and that the cash cushion is $35.3 million against $4.22 million in quarterly interest. The math Bailey said his audience should do is incomplete by every fact filed under his name. The CEO making the pitch had spent the prior twelve months as the public face of Bitcoin policy advocacy in Washington. The disclosure he chose not to make to his retail audience would have been read by the regulators he had personally lobbied. "BREAKING: DAVID BAILEY DEFEATED MARK KARPELES IN HEAD TO HEAD BATTLE FOR MAGIC THE GATHERING SUPREMACY. JESSE POWELL OF KRAKEN OFFICIATED. BAILEY REMAINS UNDEFEATED WITH 2-0 RECORD. MTGOX TRUSTEE IN SHAMBLES." — @DavidFBailey, April 30, 2026 https://x.com/DavidFBailey/status/2050017943673831834 On April 30, Bailey posted that he had defeated Mark Karpeles, the former CEO of Mt. Gox, in a Magic: The Gathering match. The match was officiated by Jesse Powell, the founder of Kraken. The man who underwrote NAKA's $210 million loan was the referee. The man who lost 850,000 Bitcoin running an exchange in 2014 was the opponent. On May 12, the day before NAKA's Q1 release showed the $238.8 million loss, Bailey opined publicly on Michael Saylor's credit market access. "As long as Saylor can make the payments," he wrote, the credit market would "suck capital in like a black hole." Bailey is the one with the payment problem. On May 22, the day his company executed a 1-for-40 reverse split to maintain Nasdaq compliance, Bailey tweeted "Pizza & $NAKA" and welcomed Tyler Evans to the NAKA board with "Time to cook." Evans, his co-founder and co-seller in the UTXO deal, the man who walked away with 11.9 million NAKA shares for his half of the stripped-down investment firm, was given a board seat the same day the share count was forcibly compressed by 97.5%. No other commentary from the CEO on the split. On May 26, in a reply to another user, Bailey disclosed that KindlyMD, the operating healthcare business that originally provided the Nasdaq listing, would be wound down by the end of the quarter. KindlyMD ran four clinics in Utah. The mission, when the original company filed its 10-K in March 2026, was reducing opioid use through integrated medical care, pain management, and mental health services. The original CEO, Tim Pickett, was supposed to continue operating the healthcare arm after the merger. The 2025 merger announcement pitched Bitcoin treasury growth alongside continued patient care. The healthcare business in Q1 2026 generated $479,000 in revenue. The four clinics are closing in the next 30 days. 10 Billion NAKA executed a 1-for-40 reverse split on May 22. The 696.1 million shares outstanding pre-split became 17.4 million post-split. The stated reason was Nasdaq Rule 5450(a)(1), the minimum bid price requirement, with a deficiency notice that NAKA had received in December 2025 and a deadline to regain compliance of approximately June 8, 2026. NAKA shares began trading split-adjusted at approximately $4.75 on May 22. https://x.com/i/web/status/2057143521367245259 The authorized share count wasn't reduced in the same action. Nakamoto has 10 billion authorized common shares against 17.4 million outstanding. The dilution runway is approximately 575 to 1. In August 2025, Nakamoto filed a $5 billion at-the-market equity offering with the SEC. The ATM Program is administered by B. Riley Securities, Cantor Fitzgerald, TD Securities, Canaccord Genuity, Cohen & Company, Craig-Hallum, Needham, Benchmark, and Yorkville Securities. As of the most recent SEC filings, Nakamoto has sold $6,429,384.84 of stock under the ATM Program. The remaining capacity is $4,993,570,615.16. The $5B shelf is loaded and essentially untouched. Q1 compensation expense was $7,347,000. Q1 total operating revenue was $2,678,000. The company paid its C-suite roughly $2.74 for every $1 of revenue it generated. The prior-year period had $1,003,000 in compensation expense. Compensation rose 7x while revenue rose to a level that doesn't approach covering it. Yesterday afternoon, NAKA was halted on the Nasdaq after the stock plunged 25% in a single session. https://x.com/i/web/status/2059367287132467235 Bailey's personal stake is subject to a six-month lock-up on 50% of his BTC Inc and UTXO merger shares, expiring August 20, 2026. The remaining 50% locks until February 20, 2027. He retains demand registration rights triggering at any underwritten offering producing at least $25 million in gross proceeds. His total stake of 119.36 million pre-split shares is 2.98 million post-split, worth approximately $14 million at the current price. It's not a stake that can be sold to repay a $210 million loan. ⚠The December 4 numbers run as follows. Principal due: $210 million. Remaining interest: approximately $8.4 million across two quarters. Total due: $218 million. Cash on hand at March 31: $35.3 million, declining at roughly $16 million per quarter from operations. The three options: sell Bitcoin into the market, refinance into another secured facility, or raise equity. The 4,405 pledged Bitcoin at $75,400 equals $332 million. Selling at par, NAKA could repay Kraken and retain $114 million in residual Bitcoin. Below the maintenance line, every $1,000 drop in Bitcoin price destroys roughly $4.4 million in residual equity. Refinancing requires a creditor willing to take Bitcoin collateral and Bailey-controlled governance risk into a six-month window. The original lender is the natural candidate, with the most leverage to set terms. The equity raise option is the $5B ATM. The remaining capacity is approximately twenty-five times the loan principal. The dilution runway is the loan repayment plan if Bitcoin cooperates and yesterday's trading halt wasn't the start of a different pattern. The lock-up on half of Bailey's BTC Inc and UTXO merger shares expires August 20, a few months before the loan matures. The Pattern Step back from the loan and look at the people. Bailey held 11 million shares at $1.12. Adam Back held nearly 9 million. Balaji Srinivasan, Jameson Lopp, Mark Yusko, Jihan Wu, Eric Semler, all of them in at the PIPE price that a teacher or a truck driver or a first-time investor never had access to. Retail bought the same stock at $30+. The asymmetry between the people who shape the Bitcoin conversation and the people who consume it was a 25-fold difference in entry price. These are the people who run the conferences, publish the magazines, manage the funds, post the threads. Bitcoin Magazine publishes the policy think-pieces. The Bitcoin Conference hosts the institutional onboarding panels. Bitwise builds the products. Metaplanet anchors the cross-border treasury narrative. Each is a node in the supply chain of conviction that turns skeptics into believers and believers into bag holders. Bailey owns three of those nodes. Bitcoin Magazine, the Bitcoin Conference, UTXO Management, all inside NAKA, all acquired with shares priced at four times the market, all approved by his investor base before retail ever bought a share. The institutional infrastructure that legitimizes Bitcoin treasury equities is the institutional infrastructure he now controls. The mechanics of a secured Bitcoin-backed loan are independent of the founder. The lender lends dollars against Bitcoin collateral on the condition that if Bitcoin falls, the lender can demand more collateral or liquidate. The borrower agrees to be a seller in any market the lender chooses. The maturity is fixed on the calendar. The price at that maturity is whatever the market produces. The 4,405 Bitcoin pledged to Kraken belong to NAKA's public shareholders. The maturity belongs to everyone who holds Bitcoin. The megaphone Bailey controls hosts Bitcoin for Corporations at The Glasshouse in Manhattan. The presenting sponsor is Metaplanet. Tyler Evans, who walked away with 11.9 million NAKA shares from the UTXO call option, sits on Metaplanet's board and just joined NAKA's. The conference will fill The Glasshouse with the next 250 institutional Bitcoin decision-makers. The pitch will be Bitcoin treasury strategy as a corporate imperative. The CEO making the pitch will have $210 million in secured debt due 130 days after the conference closes. December 4 In eight days, the make-whole window on the Kraken loan closes. After June 4, NAKA can prepay early without penalty. If Bailey has a refinancing or an equity offering planned, that's the window when it surfaces. In thirty days, Bitcoin for Corporations fills The Glasshouse. In eighty-six days, half of Bailey's BTC Inc and UTXO merger shares unlock from the lock-up. He retains demand registration rights triggering at any underwritten offering producing at least $25 million in gross proceeds. In one hundred and ninety days, the loan matures. The Heist closed three months ago on this account with one question: when did the Bitcoin community hand the keys to conference promoters and influencer capitalists, and why is anyone surprised when they drive off with the car? They haven't driven off yet. Bailey still owns the company. He still owns the conference, still owns the magazine, still owns the asset manager. He still has the $5 billion ATM, the $35.3 million in cash, the 5,064 Bitcoin, and 190 days. Kraken sits across the table and they want the Bitcoin. The 4,405 pledged coins are a market event waiting on a calendar. The 17.4 million outstanding shares are a clearing price waiting on a print. The C-suite ratio of $2.74 in compensation per dollar of revenue is the operating reality. https://x.com/i/web/status/2059642502051733983 Yesterday's trading halt was a tell. The $NAKA funeral now has a date.

I don't think 10% is disproportionate. There was a bug that all Bitcoin could be taken. What would be appropriate in your opinion?

how "heavy" are we talking?!

you mean use and recommend like coldcard?

And RSI equals your heart rate?!

There is no PWA?

Works again

Let me see if I can fix my zaps

Clarkson's Farm

Let's ask why he left

typo of the year

Haha very nice 🤠

You can also hop countries with mullvad

We should have a bot like that scans for YouTube links, downloads the video with yt-dlp, uploads them to a random blossom server, maybe mirror a bit and post a reply note.